Kona 2016 Race Forecast & Plan

Background

Like Ironman Boulder, I will make estimates of my race times for Kona.  I do this exercise for a few reasons.  First and foremost, I do it because it helps me wrap my head around what is possible.  For me, the act of performing the analysis and writing it down helps make it real.  If I had not performed the analysis leading into Boulder, I would have NEVER thought it possible that I could approach the 9-hour mark in an Ironman, but I did.  Also, this exercise helps set reasonable expectations.  These estimates are not goals, but are useful in assessing objectively a performance relative to my potential.  In my mind, this is one of the most fundamental needs all athletes have -- to know how close they are to their potential.  Lastly, these estimates act as motivators for me.  They are a line in the sand I know I should be able to reach. As a result, these benchmarks act as a performance enhancer.

This analysis will be far simpler than the one for Ironman Boulder, as I now have a very recent Ironman where I raced very near my potential.  That performance will serve as the most influential data point in my estimates.

Split Estimates

These estimates are based on several data points, but will use Kona-2015 as the baseline.

Swim (Estimate: 1:03 to 1:06)

This estimate will perhaps be the simplest, as it is based on these three views:

1. I swam a ~1:03 in the Practice Swim on the Kona swim course last weekend (wow; what a surprise!).  However, I learned that the course was about 200-yards shorter than last year (but still the accurate 4200 yards). 
2. For me, that 200-yards equates to about 3-minutes. Assume that the Kona course will be 200-yards longer than the practice swim, which would equate to a 1:06 swim split.
3. As discussed in the IM-Boulder Race Recap post, my swim times this year are about 25% slower than the best swimmers.  The fastest swimmers in Kona came out of the water (2015) near 52-minutes.  Therefore, this method estimates my swim split as 1:05.

Bike (Estimate: 4:45 to 4:52)

This estimate is based on an online bike split tool -- BestBikeSplit (BBS).  While the tool is somewhat of a black-box, there is a lot of detail leading into the estimate.  First, I used BBS to estimate the IM--Boulder split, using my actual power; it was VERY close (within 1-2 minutes).  I then adjusted the coefficient of drag (CdA) so that the BBS estimate matched my actual time.  The theory being that the difference in the estimate is that I am actually more aero than BBS expected (thanks Dimond Bikes!).  I then applied that CdA to the Kona course, but replaced my disk wheel with a deep wheel (for Kona).  Next, BBS also has an option that accounts for the difference in altitude between training & racing.  The conservative of the two options (acclimatized) suggests that my Kona normalized power should be 222W vs 210 at Boulder, a 6% increase in power.  It would probably be reasonable to also run the scenario where Kona power was equivalent to Boulder.  (At this point, I should also remark that I am actually stronger on the bike coming into Kona as compared to Boulder, as I accumulated several more long rides since Boulder, including some good climbing.  In addition, I believe the glute/hamstring functional work I had been doing also added some strength.)  So, with all these assumptions, the BBS estimates are as follows:

• Using 222W (acclimatized / power adjusted): 4:45
• Using 210W (not adjusted): 4:52

For historical purposes, here is the BBS summary:

One other method maybe applicable in estimating the bike split.  I looked at guys who raced Kona WELL after Boulder in 2015.  I found that they tended to ride about 5% slower at Kona vs. Boulder.  So, applying that factor to my Boulder bike split results in an estimate of 4:48, which is near the middle of the BBS estimates.

One last, and important comment: all this assumes the wind is moderate.  If it's a windy day -- like 2014, times will be slower (for everyone).

Run (Estimate: 3:10 to 3:21)

The following methods will be used to estimate the run split:

• When I heat trained for IM-Louisville (heat index similar to Kona), I found that my marathon was essentially the same as Boulder.  So, it seems the altitude offsets the heat.  So, the first estimate will simply be based on the run split at Boulder, a 3:21.
• However, as I reported in my post T-minus 14-days, I am running about 25-seconds per mile faster (at the same heart rate) a compared to the lead into Boulder.  Specifically, my run pace at race heart rate is 7:15/mile pace, which equates to a 3:10 run split.
• Using my recent experience here on the island, after heat acclimating for about 6-days, I am finding my "all day pace" to be about 7:40, which correlates to a heart rate of about 10-beats below my IM race effort.  Knowing that 10BPM results in about 23-seconds/mile (see the slope of the line in T-minus 14-days), results in a race pace of 7:17/mile, and a marathon split of 3:11.
• From the same analysis of guys who raced Kona well after Boulder in 2015, I found that they ran about 6% faster in Kona vs Boulder.  Applying that factor to my 3:21 Boulder run, suggests a 3:10 run split. 

Total (Estimate: 9:06 to 9:27)

Using the average transition times from the Boulder/Kona cohort of 9-minutes, and the previous splits, here is the overall estimate of what is possible (not a goal) at Kona this year:

Discipline	Fastest	Middle	Slowest
Swim	1:03	1:05	1:06
Bike	4:45	4:48	4:52
Run	3:10	3:15	3:21
T1+T2	0:08	0:08	0:08
Total	9:06	9:17	9:27

Ironman Kona 2015 Retrospect

While Kona-2015 was my best performance on the Island in my three attempts, it was surely not to my potential.  My health, fitness, and preparation going into Kona were solid (I think).  However, a few factors compounded that resulted in a sub-optimal performance.  The race started to decline for me coming back from Hawi (mile 60 on the bike).  I was having trouble holding power and was just not comfortable in the aero position.  So, there was a lot of siting up an slowing down in the last 2-hours.  I lost perhaps 15-minutes due to those issues.  Also, GI issues started near mile 90 on the bike.  I learned on New Years Day this year during a swim that EFS Liquid Shot + Pre-race does NOT sit well on my stomach.  The GI issues were so prevalent in 2015 that I had to use the porta-potty 11-times in the first 10-miles, and many more times all the way home.  Lastly, while I did heat train at home, it just wasn't enough; I was not prepared or the heat last year.  The GI issues an heat surely cost me perhaps 30-minutes on the marathon.

In short, I've figured out an important few things that hurt me last year and am more prepared, fitter, healthy, and tapered this year.

The Biggest Challenge

The biggest challenge I face now, is simply executing to my race plan, not getting caught in the immense GRAVITY of this race.  I am still trying to grasp the reasons behind the fear I have of this race.  I know this fear is simply distracting me and I need to put it behind me.  My plan on Saturday is to keep focused on the things I can control, starting with my attitude.

Race Plan

Pre-race

• Finish breakfast by 5am
• At transition by 5:30am

Swim

• Start to the left and middle
• Focus on a smooth, clean start
• Find some good feet to daft along as much as possible
• Steady on the way out; moderate on the way back

Bike

• Follow the PSI plan with a target of 44
• [edit 10/6/16] The following caps will apply:
• Heart Rate: 155BPM
• Power: 275W sustained (beyond 1-minute)
• [edit 10/6/16] I will assess the PSI target at the top of Hawi to ensure my heart rate and perceived effort (RPE) are within tolerance.  Specifically, I expect to see an average HR of 140BPM at the turn-around.  If the HR or RPE are higher than expected, I will drop the PSI accordingly.
• Bike nutrition:
• 0-60: ~800kCal EFS Liquid Shot
• 60-112: (special needs) ~800kCal EFS Drink + 1-scoop Pre-race

Run

• Maintain a heart rate of 145BPM
• Power-walk Palani
• Run nutrition:
• Miles 0-16.5: Gatorade + water
• Miles 16.5-20: (special needs) EFS Drink + 1-scoop Pre-race
• Miles 20-26.2: Coke