T-minus 14-Days + Run Pace Analysis

The Taper Has Started

It feels so strange to start tapering weeks out from an event, as I have gotten used to a 3-4 day taper for HIM's and perhaps a week taper for a full Ironman.  Nonetheless, I want to be both fit & fresh for Kona and the longer taper should give me that, especially for the all-important run.  As I indicated in the previous post (T-minus 27-Days), my plan was to end each Sunday with a linear reduction in my Training Stress Balance (TSB) from -45, to -30, to -15, to 0 race week.  Well, I like it when things go to plan!  As may be seen in the Performance Management Chart (PMC) below, I ended last Sunday with a TSB of -31.

However, these metrics LIE!  I felt pretty darn tired at the end of last week and through the first half of this week; and it really reflected on my long run (just 16-miles) Sunday.  Oh, well; it's been MONTHS since my last botched run.  I am glad to see that my Chronic Training Load (CTL) has reached a level higher than my prep for IM-Boulder.  That would suggest that I have more fitness going into Kona as compared to Boulder.

Run Fitness Has Emerged

As I also mentioned in previous post, my run performance has markedly improved since IM-Boulder.  Over the last few weeks, I have logged some incredible runs, including two 20-milers, and several bricks (after 100, 80, and 50-mile rides).  Frankly, the run pace has me flabbergasted.  As I mentioned last week, it looks like I am running faster -- at the same effort -- as compared to pre-IM-Boulder.  As detailed below, it's an astounding 25-seconds per mile faster.  That is nearly a 5% increase in speed, which was already a personal best, in just 6-weeks.

Run Pace Analysis

As detailed in IM-Boulder Race Recap, I estimated my run Ironman Boulder split within 1-minute of the actual split (3:21) with two different methods.  That analysis used several long runs and regression analysis to analyze pace vs. heart rate.  In training for IM-Boulder, I was running at a pace of 7:40/mile at a heart rate of 145BPM.  Data from the recent brick runs shows that I am running at a pace of 7:15/mile at the same (race effort) heart rate.

Final Three Weeks

Over the next three weeks, the plan includes:

• Doing one more 100-mile ride
• Including some intensity in the shorter rides
• Shortening the long run to 13-miles
• Bringing the TSB up to -15 by the end of week
• I leave for Kona on 9/28, a full 10-days ahead of the race, which should provide a good opportunity to heat acclimate and unload the logistical stress before the family arrives on 10/6