Ironman Boulder 2016 Race Recap

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• This race recap is lengthy & unconventional.  I suspect it could be subject to a great deal of criticism in the time it took to prepare and for folks to read.  However, I primarily wrote this for myself, to "internalize" the race before-hand, and now afterward.  My training was suggesting I could accomplish things I had never even fathomed previously.  So, I needed to go through the analysis before hand to convince myself of the feasibility of such grand plans.
• When writing & editing, I can't help but feel that this is mostly a "clinical" representation of the race and its preparation.  That fact is ironic when considering the amount of emotion that has gone into this race.
• Those who are able and interested to read through the entire post -- kudos, congrats, and thank you

Highlights

• Boulder was a "train-through" race (20-mile run 2-weeks prior); about a 1-week taper
• First age-group win; 6th overall in a time of 9:11
• 3rd overall, when considering just bike+run
• Run PR by 3-minutes, at elevation, on a harder course
• GI issue were non-existent; nutrition plan seems to be working
• Was able to maintain an elevated HR near plan
• At nearly the same heart rate (HR), run pace was 30-seconds per mile faster than last year

Race Goals

• Win my age group (this would be a first for a full distance IM)
• Qualify for Kona
• Recovery quickly so I may resume training (this is why I did a 1-week taper)
• Test my potential (to help inform the Kona plan, goals, and build confidence)

Race Plan

Swim: 

• seed with the 1:00 to 1:10 group
• start steady and build after the first turn to moderate effort

Bike:

• hold a 44 PSI (Power Speed Index), based on:
• Bob_McRae_2016_07_28_06_10_18.xlsx – 80-mile race-representative ride, where I held a PSI=42
• Train.v.Race.Speed.xlsx – that estimates the difference between training & racing –due to gear, race conditions (no slowing/stopping, etc.) is near 1.8-MPH
• This PSI is completely reasonable, as I held a PSI=43.3 last year and my race speed this year should be ~1.55-MPH faster than last year due to gear and other (unknown) factors.  Adding 1.55 to 43.3 results in a potential PSI of 44.9.  So, the saved power should result in a better run

Run: 

• Plan-A (feeling good): Hold a constant HR=145
• Plan-B (struggling): Hold a HR=145 on the ascents & descents; then HR=126 on flat sections
• Ascent/Descents: 0-1.5-miles, 6.5-14, 20-finish

Race Plan Risks

• Not able to elevate heart rate (HR), especially on the run
• Poor swim

Race Report

Pre-race: 

• My mom offered to take me to Boulder from our house in Arvada race morning; and we agreed to be rolling at 415am.  (Mom’s are GREAT!) The night before,  I prepared everything I could so that the morning would be quick, including my Mason Jar Breakfast (see below).  I was in bed by about 930pm and slept pretty well until about 2am, at which point I started the “did I miss my alarm” check every 30-minutes or so.  Alarm went off at 345am, and I started getting ready, which was pretty quick given my new training/racing breakfast.  I had everything ready and by the door at 4am.  We were rolling near 410am, at which time I started my Mason Jar Breakfast
• Mason Jar Breakfast: This is best prepared the night before and refridgerated.  It has a lot of fat, little fiber, no sweeteners.  Quart mason jar filled with the following: coconut milk (fat), a little chia seeds (helps hold things together as it gels), lots of hemp seeds (lots of good fat & protein with little fiber), 5g of Ribose, about 1-cup of blueberries, and then filled to about 80% with water; shaken.  The nice thing about this breakfast, beyond its nutrition benefits is that: (1) it can be prepared the night before, (2) it does not required heating, and (3) it can be simply drunk
• The ONLY access to race start (Boulder Reservoir) was via buses from Boulder High School; I was on bus @ 445am and at the reservoir near 515am; transition was scheduled to close at 6am; and race start at 620am.  On my way to the bike, I ran into fellow Dimond guys, Rob Gray and Chris Blick, who were already done and just hanging out.  There was enough time to get the bike prepared (most of that time waiting in line for access to air for the tires)
• Pre-race nutrition:  Mason Jar Breakfast (500kCal; 50kCal carbs) + 16-oz + 2-sccops Ucan (200kCal carbs)

Swim (actual: 1:07:54 / predicted: 1:03 to 1:08)

• IMB is a rolling start, where athletes group themselves based on their estimated swim split.  I seeded with the 1:00-1:15 group.  I was in the water about 60-90 seconds after the cannon went off.  The start was pretty easy with minimal contact (unlike 2015).  I started pretty easy and got into a good deep exhaling pattern quickly.  While I tried to find feet to draft, I could not find a good pair, so I swam most of the course myself.  In terms of swim execution, unlike many races, I was swimming straighter – without the significant right-bias that I normally see later in the swim.  I found myself within 10-yards of each buoy as we went by.  In terms of swim effort, I swam it like an Ironman: started “easy”, and elevated to moderate through the swim.  To be honest, I am still unclear why and a bit disappointed that my swim split was not middle of my predicted range.  Rob Gray and I have had a few swims together, including a 3-mile open water swim where we raced the second half and finished within 5-seconds of each other (he beat me!).  Rob even suggested that we should line up together at the start of our Ironman swim.  However, Rob swam 1:00:38.  Rob indicated in his race report that he swam easy and drafted 75% of the course.  As compared to the other races of the year, IMB was typical (I am swimming about 25% slower than the top-10 swimmers; see image below.)  Clearly, I still have more work to do!

• Swim Execution vs. Plan:  I swam straight, started easy, and built into a good effort.  So, from that perspective execution was all that I could have hoped for.  Of course the clock tells a different story.

T1 (0:03:52)

• T1 was uneventful and FAST.  The wetsuit strippers were awesome, as were the transition bag handlers.  I was able to run through the bag area and just grab my bag as they handed it to me.   The transition tent volunteers were excellent too, as they filled my bag with my swim stuff we I got ready for the bike.  I quickly donned my helmet, kept my bike shoes in hand, and ran to my bike.  I donned my shoes and grabbed my bike.

Bike (actual: 4:34:40 / predicted: 4:28 to 4:35)

• It should be noted that the IMB bike course is about 2-miles short, AND at altitude, so splits are abnormally fast.  However, during the first 30-miles, I noticed that my bike speed was not quite as fast as I had predicted (perhaps about ~0.5MPH slower).  So as to not make up the speed difference by “over-biking”, I decided to reduce the target PSI from 44 to 43.  With the second fastest bike split of ALL competitors, I cannot complain.  It’s clear in comparing my bike power to speed/splits via analytical tools and other riders, that I have established a VERY aerodynamic system.  There are several factors that explain the efficacy of this “system” including: (1) ability to hold aero position when appropriate and for the duration of the ride, (2) the PSI pacing approach, (3) equipment (bike, tubes, tires), speed suit, helmet.  At this point, the only way for me to go faster on the bike is to add more power.
• At about mile 30, I started to feel hungry; in hindsight, that was a good sign that my GI system was well primed and processing what I was putting in.  Also, I actually peed 4-times during the bike, also a very good sign.
• On a concerning note, I noticed at about mile-40, as I sat up at a reasonable speed (to stretch back or get water at the aid station), my headset/front wheel was wobbly.  I was concerned that a looseness I noticed (and did not fix; I did not touch it for fear of making ANY changes pre-race) may have worsened.   On a few occasions before a fast descent, I jerked the bars a bit to ensure everything seemed well-connected.  Fortunately, nothing deleterious occurred due to that issue.  I have since tightened my headset.
• After the first Nelson climb (40-miles) I noticed the race staring to thin out; the distance between riders began to get larger and larger.  This was a good sign!  At one point, I think I heard a report of being 8-minutes back.  I was doing the math in my head, knowing that the leaders probably swam a good 10-15 minutes faster than I.  I kept thinking did she say 18-minutes, 28-minutes…Not 18, because that sounds different; 28 seems like a lot.  8-minutes; wow, I’m really near the front of this whole race!
• At about 50-miles, I saw Rob Gray on the side of the road with a few other vehicles.  I was concerned that he may have crashed or something else.  However, he was present enough to recognize me and yell my name.  So, I kept hoping it was just a flat and that I’d see him pass me soon enough.
• Surprisingly, at about 60-miles, my back started getting sore, even with the stretching measures I was doing on the descents.  I was surprised given how much aero time I had in prep for this race.  However, that subsided by about mile 80.
• As we crossed the railroad tracks for the first time in Hygiene, I nearly lost my front hydration system and power meter!  Even when secured down with two rubber bands, the bottle launched out of its holder...right into my lap!  Imagine losing nutrition AND one’s pacing tool half way through an Ironman bike!  Fortunately, I was able to re-secure it on the go.  I swear those railroad tracks are far rougher during race-day than usual.
• Special needs requires special mention.  I had my 2nd nutrition bottle in the bag waiting for me.  Normally, one must try to navigate the crowd, keeping the bike straight, while opening a sealed bag.  Not a task one practices too often.  However, because the race was pretty thin, there wasn’t a crowd.  Also, the volunteer who grabbed my bag ripped it open and pulled out my bottle and handed it to me.  It was as smooth as a normal hand-over.
• Bike Execution vs. Plan:  My plan was to use my “Power-Speed Index” (PSI) approach to pacing and hold a PSI=44, then after about 30-miles, I adjusted the target to 43.  The chart below shows how I executed against that plan – spot-on.  I averaged a PSI=43.5.  The red line was the target PSI; the blue was actual; green is the difference (from the target PSI).  The most telling line is the purple one, which shows the cumulative difference from the target.  An ideal ride is one where the purple line is flat-lined at zero.  One, like that below that ends above zero indicates bike above the target PSI.  Indeed, starting at 3:30 I began to exceed the target.  Such a performance suggests good bike fitness relative to the plan/target and may lead to a good run.

• Bike Nutrition (1400kCal total): From miles 0-60, I used a 24-oz bottle with 800kCal of EFS Liquid Shot; from mile 60-112 I used a 24-oz bottle with 6-scoops (600kCal) of EFS Drink with 1-scoop of Pre-race.

T2 (0:03:22)

• Like T1, T2 was FAST.  I was able to simply hand-over the bike to a volunteer who took it flawlessly.  I then ran past all the T2 bags and a volunteer had mine in an extended arm for me to grab.  I entered the empty changing tent and asked the same question I did last year, “How many people have been through here?”  Last year, the estimate was about 50 (and they were right); this year, there was no estimate and the answer was “your 6th; Steve Johnson just left”.  My response, “6th place; wow!”

Run (actual: 3:21:39 / predicted: 3:22 to 3:27)

• Unlike 2015 where I started the run 50th overall and was able to run-down a bunch of guys (35 of them), this year I had only the “pointy-end” of the field ahead of me.  So, it was a matter of running to my plan.  At the start of the run, I passed a guy who simply said, “48”,  After a few seconds, I corrected him in saying “No, 86”.  Of course, he was talking about the number on my calf (my race age).  About 30-seconds later, still within ear-shot, I yelled back, “Oh, now I understand”.  It’s funny how the simplest things become difficult to process when working hard.  It felt good to be on the run and I started settling into the pace, trying to lower the heart rate.   My plan was to maintain 145BPM, but for the first 2-miles it was 150; not bad, but definitely needed to calm it down.  Of course, that correlated to a 7:24/mile pace!  Slowly, it settled to the planned range, but I was running a 7:27 pace and my “fast” alarm on the Garmin kept alerting me.  However, the plan was HR-based, so I kept on.  I saw the family for the first time at mile-1.  Christine let me know I was first in my age group.  I actually said to Christine, “How’s this for kicking the butt!”?  I kept looking for Steve Johnson and was able to see him near mile-3 or so, and then again near the first turn-around.  It was true, I was about 1-2 minutes behind Steve (who is a 9-hour Kona guy).  I was feeling pretty relaxed and cheering for the guys ahead of me as I saw them coming in the opposite direction after the turn-around.  I made my way to the lowest point of the course, did the turn-around, and prepared for the “ascent” – in quotes because it’s really not noticeable.  I was still running a 7:40 pace up the creek!  I saw the kids & Christine again at mile 8-9, and was hoping to hear about my gap on the 2nd place guy in my AG, but that did not come.  At mile 11 I saw Pete Alfino, who told me Steve is just ahead.  I was still in disbelief that I was keeping the gap with Steve.  As we approach the upper turn-around, the ascent does become noticeable.  However, I was still running strong, maintaining the 7:40 pace, and it was manageable.  I made the turn-around and the HR dropped immediately from the upper 140’s to lower 140’s (to be expected).  Also expected was the pace increasing to 7:13.  Now, I should mention that the fastest training paces I had done of any distance have been in the 7:30 range, so this was fast, relative to my training.  Also, considering my lab-tested threshold (last year) was 7:10/mile, this was “dangerous” territory.  Regardless, I kept to the HR plan.  I was feeling so well, that I asked the photographer on the descent to take a picture of my butt, which has my kids feel kicking my butt!  And finally, I get a picture while running with both feet off the ground simultaneously!

• I picked-up my special needs at mile13 or so, which contained my flask of EFS drink & Pre-race.  I sipped on that before the next few aid stations.  The descent was solid and everything was good until the penultimate turn-around (at the bottom of the course).  At about mile-20 – at the start of the ascent, my pace dropped to ~8:20/mile.  However, I was maintaining a reasonable HR of 143BPM.  I guess this was the earlier speed catching up to me.  As I saw Pete Alfino at mile 24, I said, “This is REALLLLLY hard”.  His response, “Just stay steady”, stuck with me through the rest of the climb to mile 24.  After the turn-around, I was able to capitalize on the descent and pick the pace back up to 7:44/mile.  Making the last turn to the finish was so sweet.  Then making it around to see the straight line to the finish, my heart just sprang from my chest.  While I have had so many wonderful moments in my life, including the birth of two wonderful children, finishing an Ironman is ALWAYS such a fulfilling experience.
• Run Nutrition (~750kCal total): Miles 0-20: 2-3-oz Gatorade; Miles 20-26: 2-3-oz Coke; Special needs: ½ scoop EFS + 1-scoop Pre-race.
• Run Execution vs. Plan: Plan-A was to run based on heart rate at 145BPM; Plan-B (if was I was not feeling as strong) was to run 145BPM on the ascents & descents, and 126 on the flat sections (miles 1.5-6.5 & 14.5-20).  Well, I felt pretty good up until mile-20, which is why I stuck to Plan-A.  In fact, I altered the plan and decided NOT to walk aid stations during that first 20-miles.  I was going after a few elusive goals: (1) a 3:15 marathon split, and (2) going under 9-hours for the day.

Finish (actual: 9:11:27 / predicted: 9:01 to 9:20)

Race Goal Assessment

• Win my age group – Accomplished – won by 14-minutes
• Qualify for Kona -- Yep
• Recovery quickly so I may resume training – A work in progress; at week 2 I have done a 80-mile ride and been running pretty consistently.  No nagging injuries.  Fatigue is the main issue to work through.
• Test my potential – The overall race performance and the run solidified my potential.  I feel like I have a shot at accomplishing my Kona goals (subject of another post)

Lessons Learned

• Fix ANY potential safety issues (e.g., loose headset)
• Find a better way to secure the front hydration system
• The estimated 1.8MPH difference between training& racing is actually probably closer to 1.3MPH (need to update the analysis with IMB2016)

Race Prep

Training

• Overall
• CTL=130 the Sunday before the race, at which point I really started the taper.  Overall CTL probably actually 13-points higher, as I was sick 4-weeks from the race.  As I did not train for 5-6 days, Training Peaks showed I lost 13 CTL points, which is supposed to be the measure of overall fitness.  I think it’s highly unlikely to lose 10% of one’s fitness in 1-week!
• Bike CTL = 67 the Sunday before the race, which is 52% of the overall
• Run CTL = 63 the Sunday before the race, which is 48% of the overall
• Peak week: ending 6/26/16

	MON	TUE	WED	THUR	FRI	SAT	SUN
Bike			12-miles1	90-miles		93-miles
Run		20-miles			11-miles		20-miles
Note: 1. Torque-endurance intervals

• Swim
• Mid-November through January was the heaviest swim block I have ever done.  In 75-days, I swam 75 times.  In January, I swam 100k yds.  For the ~8-wks prior to race, I focused more on technique with the help of Pete Alfino.  Swim volume was perhaps 10k/week and 3-4x per week.
• Bike
• Volume: 185-255, peaking at 310; typical pattern: 80-100 Thursday & Saturday, with some shorter rides on Wednesday & Fridays
• Running
• Volume: 25 – 40-miles/week; peaking at 60 in early June
• Consistent track sessions of leading to 10x 800’s at ~3:08 to 3:21 (Yasso 800’s); 3-weeks prior to race
• 5x long-runs of negative-split 20-miles, with the last one 2-weeks prior to race-day; average pace = 7:45, with peak sustain pace = 7:30/mile

Nutrition

• Early in the season, I would do the first workout (or two) fasted, including swim/spin sessions.
• As a result of some health issues and difficulty recovering from my HIM races earlier in the season, I started a Whole-30 program late May.  Now, I am generally following a Paleo diet, gluten and dairy-free for the last 3-months
• Carb restriction during Monday-Thursday race week; then carb re-load Friday & Saturday

Heat Training

• 8x Total session between 7/20/16 and 8/2/16, with 6x of them after 7/28/1

Training Differences From Prior 2-years

• Endurance deferral (bike) – While I had a solid early season of training, I did not start preparing for the distance of Ironman until late June (about 6-weeks prior to race-day).  Indeed, my first long ride (90-miles) was not until 6/23/16.  Running was different in that I started ramping in early April.
• Slowed down the runs – I faced some health issues through much of the early season, which tended to limit my ability to elevate my heart rate, especially while running.  However, during this time I also took the advice of a few folks (Rob Gray and Pete Alfino) that I should slow down my endurance training.  I really focused on running at a pace that felt comfortable, while in years past the effort was high enough that it was NOT comfortable.

Race Estimates

• The analysis below was completed prior to the race in an effort to help predict my performance and provide confidence that I could achieve those estimates.  These estimates are based on my potential, NOT worst-case, but what I could do on a perfect to good day
• My times are estimated as follows:

Split	Low	Nominal	High
Swim	1:03	1:05	1:08
Bike	4:28	4:31	4:35
Run	3:22	3:24	3:27
T1+T2	0:08	0:09	0:10
Total	9:01	9:09	9:20

• Swim: 1:03 to 1:08
• Assuming it will be a wetsuit swim: 1:02:30 to 1:07:42
• There are a few relevant benchmarks to use for an estimate: (1) 2014 IMB & my pool 500yd splits between 2016 & 2014, (2) 2016 IMB70.3, and (3) the BareBones 2016 3-mile swim
• Using the Swim Split from 2014 IMB (wetsuit) of 1:08:36, my 500yd pool split in 2014 of 7:30, and the 500yd 2016 pool split of ~6:50, my estimated swim split would be: 1:02:30
• Using the swim split from 2016 IMB70.3 (wetsuit) of 32:23 and simply doubling it, would yield an estimated swim split of: 1:04:46
• Using the BareBones 3-mile swim (wetsuit in Boulder reservoir) split of 1:24:37 would yield an estimated swim split of: 1:07:42
• Assuming a skinsuit swim: 1:11:26
• The most relevant benchmark is IMB2015 swim split and the 2015 vs. 2016 500yd pool splits
• Using the Swim Split from 2015 IMB (skinsuit) of 1:18:24, my 500yd pool split in 2015 of 7:30, and the 500yd 2016 pool split of ~6:50, my estimated swim split would be: 1:11:26
• Bike: 4:28 to 4:35
• Starting with an incremental estimation approach:
• The following changes result in faster times as compared to 2015:
• Same course profile & distance as 2015
• I will probably save an incremental 6-minutes due to improved clothing (LG suit & eliminating the Desoto bolero)
• Probably save 4-minutes due to the switch in helmets (from Giro Attack to LG)
• Probably save a whopping 8-minutes due to the improved tires
• So, the 4:46:24 split in 2015 would be reduced by 18-minutes, yielding an estimated bike split of 4:28:24
• Also, model is used to estimate the difference in 2016 training and racing speed
• The following model from 2015 data yields an adjusted R-squared = 0.94:
• speed [MPH]= race + a*grade + b*NP^1/3 
• where,
• speed in MPH, grade in %, NP in Watts
• race = 0.86 dummy variable
• a = -372
• b = 3.95
• Applied to the course profile of IMB2015 yields a total time within 4-minutes of the actual split
• This model will be primarily used to be able to compare the speed differences -- due to power -- between two similar rides (one training, one race) in 2016.  Separating the speed difference due to power, isolates the speed difference due to race conditions (minimal slowing, no stopping, etc.) and race gear (aero helmet, tires, tubes, disk cover).  The table below shows two similar ~40-mile segments of the IMB course (one main loop).  It shows that there was a 2.1MPH difference between the two segments, but the race segment had a higher power.  Using the model above, allows isolating (subtracting) the difference in speed due to power differences.  Thus, the remaining speed difference, 1.8-MPH, is the difference in speed due to race conditions in 2016.  For simplicity, this factor will be abbreviated as “diff”.

Date	NP [Watts]	Actual [MPH]	Description
06/11/2016	217	25.2	B70.3 -- 38-mile loop
06/09/2016	208	23.1	40-mile training
		2.1	diff
		0.3	due to power
		1.8	due to gear, etc

• Another factor is also used to make speed estimates.  That is, the 5% reduction in power between a full IM and half IM I have seen historically.  The most relevant course to use for the half IM is 2016, where my NP = 218Watts.
• Lastly, each of the estimates will consider that the IMB course is close to 110.5 miles in length
• Now, the model, the diff, and the 95% power factor are used to make different estimates of the IMB-2016 speed.
• The first estimate is the simplest, which uses a 99-mile ride on most of the IMB course on 7/23/16, where my average speed was 22.3-MPH.  Simply adding the 1.8-MPH diff, yields an estimated race speed of 24.1-MPH, which results in an estimated bike split of 4:35:29
• (2) The second estimate uses differences in speed between similar rides between 2015 & 2016, which indicates that I am riding about 0.75-MPH faster in 2016 than the prior year.  Adding half of this speed difference to the IMB-2015 speed (being conservative), adding the 2016 diff, and subtracting the 2015 diff (presumably included in the 2015 IMB speed) results in a speed estimate of 24.5-MPH, which results in an estimated bike split of 4:30:47
• Run: 3:22 to 3:27
• Three methods will be used to estimate my run split
• HIM vs IM Run Pace – When running well, I have observed that there is about a 5% reduction in run pace (and power on the bike) when comparing my HIM vs. IM splits.  For example, 2015 IMB70.3 was a 7:32/mile pace, where the first 14-miles of 2015 IMB run pace was 7:55.  (My pace did decline from miles 15-26, but that was due to muscular cramping, which was an isolated incident.)  This year, I ran a 7:20/mile pace @ IMB70.3.  Using the 5% reduction in pace yields a 7:42/mile pace and an estimated run split of 3:21:44.
• 20-mile run pace – My last two 20-mile runs (where I ended with TSB = -59 & -39) were run near a 7:45 pace and IM effort/HR.  Using this pace and adding 10-sec/mile for aid station walks, yields a run split of 3:27:25.
• During the 20-mile runs, the pace was intentionally varied and the terrain was not exactly as the IMB course.  So, a model was derived to estimate pace vs. HR in flat, descents, and ascents.  Based on that model, paces are predicted based on HR.  Applied to the IMB course, and assuming I can hold an average HR=145, yields an estimated pace of 7:42, which is a split of 3:21:48.
• Transitions: 0:09
• Using the top 18-finishers from last year, the average transition time was 0:08:46.