Kona 2016 Race Recap

Summary

Going into this race, I had the highest level of fitness, health, and confidence of my entire life.  However, based on my three prior attempts at Kona, I still felt I needed to master the swim, bike, run, heat, and nutrition -- that all seem to be unique to this race.  Needless to say, that was no small feat.  That said, I had convinced myself that I could actually WIN my age group in the Ironman World Championship -- something I would have NEVER previously considered even remotely possible.  While I did not accomplish all of my goals, I come away knowing that I can compete for the top spots on the world stage.  I gave it what I had and am proud of the effort, but I still have some "unfinished business" on the island.

Pre-race

• Race week: 
• I carb-restricted from Sunday to mid-morning Thursday. Then, Thursday and Friday I carb loaded.
• Based on some advice from Kathy Alfino (a VERY talented and accomplished Kona racer), I got spiritual.  I wont go into details here, but I will say that I spent some time communing with the Island and Madame Pele on several occasions.
• The Night Before:
• My sister, Brenda, and brother-and-law, Dave, were gracious enough to take the kids the night before the race.  What an incredible load off!  Since I had plenty of time to prepare, I was able to do my last Muse session.  I was pleased to see that I achieved a PR "calm" metric of 90%.  For the month prior, I had been focusing on the "mental" aspect of preparation for this race -- in addition to the physical.  
• Pete Alfino of Mile High Multisport sent me a link to a great, perfectly-timed, and appropriate TEDtalk about being in the moment -- something I think most of us struggle to achieve, even for brief periods.  It turned out that TEDtalk would come in VERY handy during the race, and help guide my day in a positive way, when it could have easily gone in the opposite direction.  (See Bike section for details.)
• It seemed my mental game was on par with the physical.
• Race morning: 
• Since I was traveling and did not have access to my staple breakfast, I tried a new one.  The improvised breakfast was simply about one half can of coconut milk (375kCal FAT), three scoops of UCAN (300kCal CHO), and water to make it drinkable.  While this concoction may sound gross, it was actually pretty good; it tasted like and had the texture of a yogurt smoothie.  I also ate two small "apple" bananas.  In addition to the UCAN/coco-milk drink, I also had two, 24oz bottles of water with 2-scoops UCAN each (another 400kCal CHO) prior to the start.
• I had planned to arrive at transition at 5am, but since Christine drover us and we actually got there 10-minutes early.  That early arrival was fortuitous, as the line for body-marking was chaotic and LOOOOOOONG.  In fact, it was 610am when I exited marking.  While the silicone numbers are cool, I'd be happier with more time in transition with hand-written numbers.  While I was concerned about the time, I was able to setup the bike quickly, with plenty of time to spare.  I was even able to visit the porta-potty one last time.  It was nice that transition remained open through both the pro-male and pro-female starts.

Swim (Estimated: 1:03 - 1:06 / Actual: 1:02)

Typical focused look exiting the water

• I entered the swim area at 645am, 10-minutes prior to the gun.  I swam out and positioned myself right in the middle (left-right and front-back) of the fray. As I treaded water, it started to get more congested -- as expected.  The growing excitement was palpable!  We were far enough out that we could not hear the announcements.
• Finally, the cannon went off (actually, I don't remember whether it was a cannon or horn).  My goal was for a clean, relaxed start.  Yeah, Right!  The immediate start was OK, but soon, the dispersed group started to converge and the contact began.  I figured it was only to be expected and would surely pass.  However, I was later surprised that the contact continued all the way to the turn-around, some 30-minutes after the start.  Anyone exposed to the mass-start understands how stressful that time is.  Indeed, it took me 4-years in triathlon to get used to that part of the race.  However, while the water was characteristically turbulent and contact was frequent & violent, I found myself  surprisingly calm -- the entire time, even while being pushed under water, scraped with someone's long nails, and even while being kicked in the face.  I simply focused on what I could control, which was keeping my arms out in front, elbows wide, face in the water, and breathing in a full, relaxed manner.  I am convinced this calm state resulted from the meditation work I started the month prior.
• Swim Performance: 
• Overall, the swim was faster this year as evidenced by the pro's existing the water near 48-minutes, where last year it was closer to 52:30.  Applying that factor to my 2015 swim split would have predicted a 1:07 split for this year.  So, it appears I knocked off a good 5-minutes (7%) as compared to last year.  
• Also, using the other metric of my swim speed vs the top swimmers, last year I swam 40% slower, this year 30% slower.  
• Based on my 100m speed, I swam 16% faster this year vs last year.
• Finally, last year, my swim split was right in the middle of the 45-49 Age Group (AG); this year, the split was in the top 26th-percentile.
• All of these metrics suggest a substantial improvement in my swim -- thanks Pete Alfino for all the, guidance, workouts, and encouragement!  It really paid off!  I had been hoping for a 1:05 or so and talked with Pete a bunch about that.  I am sure Pete was more surprised than I was in the swim split!
• I am convinced that the swim split was significantly enhanced by the proportion of drafting.  I was probably in a good draft position for 75% of the swim.

Bike (Estimated: 4:45 to 4:52 / Actual: 4:59)

• As I exited T1, I looked at my front tire and saw it was completely flat.  I started yelling “tech support, tech support!”  I asked one of the volunteers there and was informed there was none and I had to take care of the flat myself.  I couldn’t believe I was about to start an Ironman ride with no flat replacement. However, as I struggled to remove the front tire from the rim, someone grabbed the wheel from me, and said, “grab your bike”.  I picked up the bike and ran after my savoir. A few tech-support guys were there with a new tube and pump.  While they were changing the tube, the guy who helped me was advising me to take it easy and not to try and make up the lost time, as it would be just 2-3 minutes.  As he was talking, I realized this guy was Andrew Messeck (CEO of Ironman).  I said, “Are you Andrew?” and introduced myself.  In response to his advice, I told him that I had a plan and was 2-minutes ahead of schedule  (due to the fast swim split).  My plan relied on a power meter...
• As I re-mounted the bike and looked at the power meter, it showed a dead battery symbol!  Andrew suggested that sometimes it’s best just to ride by feel.  Sure, I thought to myself, but how, precisely.  I decided to pace my effort based on breathing.  This decision was extremely fortuitous, as I had spent the last month learning how to meditate while focusing on my breath. Combined with the aforementioned TEDtalk, this pacing strategy worked VERY well -- and may replace my power/speed-based pacing strategy.  (More on that later.)  In retrospect, I cannot believe my power meter battery was dead, as I had just changed it prior to leaving for Hawaii.  Also, I had logged 2-3 reasonable rides while on the island.
• Even though I was on "plan C" at this point, I was still feeling in control and calm.  I had a plan and would work it though the bike.  I settled-in and started the getting into a relaxed breathing pattern -- of course, amidst a bunch of amped-up riders.  Riding at a moderate perceived effort up Kuakini highway, I started making some passes.  Then, I gave those away on the descent (all per plan).  I got to see the family for the first time riding up Palani.  In fact, I saw Brenda and was able to ride close enough for a high-five, but she did not see me in time to respond.  I rode Palani in a clam, relaxed manner, but many of the other riders were killing themselves.  Nutty.

Cruising up Palani 

• The pacing strategy was working well; I was feeling really good as we got started on our way out to Waikoloa.  This point was where I started to see the draft packs -- just blatant pack riding.
• As we reached Waikoloa, the wind started to pick-up.  I just focused on a steady, moderate effort and just worked with the wind.  (Hello Madame Pele.)  That approach worked very well, as I started to advance appreciably.  The wind seemed to be more of a consistent head/cross wind without the abrupt gusts for which Kona is notorious.  My progress among the field continued as the wind strength grew and we rode through North Kohala.  As we approached Hawi and I started seeing age-groupers on their way back, I estimated my position; I was amazed to find there were perhaps 500 guys ahead of me.  I figured that if I could pass just 10 riders per remaining mile I could get to the pointy-end of the field.  Very reasonable.
• The effort-based pacing approach and in-the-now focus made the ride go by very quickly.  There was NEVER a moment during the ride where I was thinking, "XX miles to go" -- because the end didn't matter; what mattered was what I was doing at each moment.

Powering back to town

• Bike Performance:
• The difference between my estimated bike split and actual was likely due to the higher winds vs the estimating model (upon which my bike estimates were based).
• An anecdotal approach to judging performance is also based on my observation of other riders during the course.  After the Hawi decent, I was in passing mode; I probably passed 200 riders, including perhaps 3 other Dimonds.
• As my power meter did not record, I can only judge my bike split using other tools.  One approach includes looking at my bike splits at various points along the course as compared to the best riders, the top 3 pro men splits.  Other than the 99.5-mile split, my pace was consistent compared to the best riders on the course.  (That particular section is an uphill grade (and in a headwind), and I think there must have been some leader tactics explaining the high speed there for the pros.)  What I find amusing about this analysis is that I actually rode faster or on par with than Jan Frodeno (jf) for nearly 20 or the early miles.  He must have really been relaxing during that period.

Ride consistency vs pros

• Another approach is based on Best Bike Split and the power/split data from several other riders (pro's).  I had to adjust the nominal race to account for the higher wind, but based on those adjustments, it appears I had to generate between 215-230W average power and probably between 230-250W normalized Watts in order to achieve the split.  Just using the estimated average power, that was between 11%-19% more power than IM Boulder.  I knew going into the race that I was stronger than Boulder, but I think this performance surely demonstrates that fact.  I attribute that additional strength to the functional strength and flexibility work I did, specifically focusing on bike effectiveness.
• A few techniques and conditions help advance the bike split, including:
• Slingshot -- frankly, I never even considered this technique until Steffen Brocks had suggested that being a feasible strategy for strong riders.  The idea being that by riding moderately faster than the surrounding riders, you can ride up on a leading rider, and then swing-out for the pass.  As long as the pass is completed within 20-seconds, this approach is totally legal and a reasonable passing/riding approach.
• Wind -- The wind was actually my biggest relative advantage, as I was able to advance more positions as the wind picked-up.  This advantage was due to a few factors including: a very aerodynamic system ( position, gear, bike, etc), and a pacing strategy that varies based on speed.  As the wind picked-up, I put in more effort and got more relative speed.
• Bike Nutrition
• Nutrition did NOT vary from the original plan, which was  800kCal of EFS Liquid Shot up to Hawai; then 800kCal of EFS Drink + 1-scoop Pre-race to the finish.  All-in-all, it was 320kCal/hour (a good amount for me).
• I finished the ride feeling very good with regard to my hydration & GI status.

Run (Estimated: 3:10 to 3:21 / Actual: 3:33)

• While I was a bit disappointed in my bike position, I expected that could outrun perhaps 80% of the field ahead.  The first part of the run was all about calming the heart rate (HR) and getting to my target.  Actually, I was able to do that immediately.  The first 5-miles I was running per plan (HR = 145BPM) and at a 7:20/mile pace (a 3:12 run split).  However, I must have been passed by dozens of guys who went by me like I was just slogging along.  They must have slowed down substantially, as I only ended up losing one place during the run split.  The picture below shows that I was feeling pretty good as the run started.

Feeling good at the start of the run

• Before the race,  I had imagined running into Natasha Badmann.  Sure enough, at mile 4 of the run, I caught her.  At that point, I was feeling pretty good and was a bit giddy.  She must have thought I was a nut, as I told her, “you’re my hero”.  I also congratulated her on such a successful career.  This interaction occurred just before seeing the family, and I proceed to tell them that Natasha was just behind me.  It was great seeing the family and giving Brenda and Alexander high-fives.

High-five with Brenda (am I smiling or is that grimace?)

• At about mile 7, I started feeling “off”.  It started with side-stitches, which turned into stomach cramping, then bloating.  Sometime after that, I switched from Gatorade to Coke, which seemed to help, but still my stomach was not settled.  At this point, my run slowed to a 7:53/mile pace (and HR=142).
• The Palani grade was not nearly as bad as I remembered from prior years.  It did feel hotter there (the only time during the run I really felt hot), but the grade was manageable.  I probably ran 50% of the climb.
• Out on the Queen-K, from miles 10-15, my HR and pace dropped a bit further (139BPM/8:25-min/mile), as I was still managing the GI discomfort.  
• Just prior to the turn-around in the Energy Lab, I was reduced to a walk, as any more effort would have led to vomiting.  In the 15-20 mile range, my effort/pace dropped to the 131BPM & 8:59/mile pace -- the lowest of the course.  Somewhere near the Energy Lab turn-around, I tried Redbull, which may have been the final thing that settled my stomach.  From the turn-around I was able to run again.
• Back out on the Queen-K, I felt like I was running well (and fast), however my pace was still just 8-min/mile (with the aid station power walks).  The Garmin file shows an erroneously low HR from mile-23 on.   The pace from 20-26.2 was a 8:04.  The last mile was a respectable 7:10/mile pace.  (I have always had the secret goal of running the last mile at a sub-7/mile pace and I got close.)
• Run Performance:
• As with prior years, my GI system was a huge limiter.  When (and if) I return to Kona, I expect to have this final issue addressed.
• Clearly, I was at least 12-minutes shy of my slowest estimated time.  From the HR/Pace analysis, had I been able to hold a HR of 145BPM, I could have achieved a 3:18 run split, which would have put me in 7th in the AG.

Overall

• The table below summarizes the three main disciplines, along with the estimated splits.  I lost about 15-minutes on the run due to the GI issues, and about 2-minutes at T1 due to the tube change.  So, a realistic time would have been 9:28, which would have placed me 7th in the AG,  still 14-minutes behind the winner.

Discipline	Estimate	Actual	Comments
Swim	1:03 to 1:06	1:02	Calm and relaxed
Bike	4:45 to 4:52	4:59	Wind explains the slower bike
Run	3:10 to 3:21	3:33	GI issues

• So far, I have broken each of the three legs down, independently.  It's worth considering whether my sub-optimal run resulted from over-extending myself on the swim and/or run.  During the swim, I kept thinking of how I as going to explain a slow-split, which was due to the heavy contact in the first half and a slow draft in the second half.  As I had mentioned previously, I did not burn any matches as a result of the chaos for the first 30-minutes; then, in the second half, I was pretty relaxed.  As for the bike, I remember finishing strong and completely alert.  I would not describe myself as "fresh" finishing the ride, but close.  Also, I was at the highest level of fitness of the season going into this race; and also had an extensive taper.  Thus, I am confident I had the endurance and freshness to back-up the swim+bike.  Lastly, as may be seen from my run splits, I was able to finish the run with a faster pace than the middle.
• Even if I had been able to run without the GI issues (at a 7:33/mile), I would have finished 7th in the AG, still 14-minutes behind the AG winner.  As compared to the median splits of the top-5 (AG), I was about 2-minutes slower in the swim, 2.5-minutes on the bike, and a full 17.5 minutes on the run (2-minutes if I could have run unencumbered).  This information will be helpful as approach future seasons on where to spend my training time.

Goal Assessment

I had set just one goal going into this race -- to race to my potential.  In hindsight, that was not a well-defined goal, as it was not entirely in my control.  However, earlier this season, I had three goals: (1) win my AG at IM Boulder [accomplished], (2) go sub-10-hours at Kona [accomplished], and (3) place within the top-10 in the AG @ Kona [missed].

Gratitude

This recap would not be complete without expressing my gratitude to several folks, including:

• Christine -- without your daily support, none of this would be possible
• Brenda & Dave -- For all your help with the kids and cheering me on at the race
• Mom -- for your continuous support and belief in me
• Pete Alfino -- for helping me master the swim and being a great sounding board
• Bill Plock -- who planted the seed a year ago that a top-10 in Kona was possible for me
• Rob Gray -- for providing a great example of how to master the sport of long-course triathlon

Kona 2016 Race Forecast & Plan

Background

Like Ironman Boulder, I will make estimates of my race times for Kona.  I do this exercise for a few reasons.  First and foremost, I do it because it helps me wrap my head around what is possible.  For me, the act of performing the analysis and writing it down helps make it real.  If I had not performed the analysis leading into Boulder, I would have NEVER thought it possible that I could approach the 9-hour mark in an Ironman, but I did.  Also, this exercise helps set reasonable expectations.  These estimates are not goals, but are useful in assessing objectively a performance relative to my potential.  In my mind, this is one of the most fundamental needs all athletes have -- to know how close they are to their potential.  Lastly, these estimates act as motivators for me.  They are a line in the sand I know I should be able to reach. As a result, these benchmarks act as a performance enhancer.

This analysis will be far simpler than the one for Ironman Boulder, as I now have a very recent Ironman where I raced very near my potential.  That performance will serve as the most influential data point in my estimates.

Split Estimates

These estimates are based on several data points, but will use Kona-2015 as the baseline.

Swim (Estimate: 1:03 to 1:06)

This estimate will perhaps be the simplest, as it is based on these three views:

1. I swam a ~1:03 in the Practice Swim on the Kona swim course last weekend (wow; what a surprise!).  However, I learned that the course was about 200-yards shorter than last year (but still the accurate 4200 yards). 
2. For me, that 200-yards equates to about 3-minutes. Assume that the Kona course will be 200-yards longer than the practice swim, which would equate to a 1:06 swim split.
3. As discussed in the IM-Boulder Race Recap post, my swim times this year are about 25% slower than the best swimmers.  The fastest swimmers in Kona came out of the water (2015) near 52-minutes.  Therefore, this method estimates my swim split as 1:05.

Bike (Estimate: 4:45 to 4:52)

This estimate is based on an online bike split tool -- BestBikeSplit (BBS).  While the tool is somewhat of a black-box, there is a lot of detail leading into the estimate.  First, I used BBS to estimate the IM--Boulder split, using my actual power; it was VERY close (within 1-2 minutes).  I then adjusted the coefficient of drag (CdA) so that the BBS estimate matched my actual time.  The theory being that the difference in the estimate is that I am actually more aero than BBS expected (thanks Dimond Bikes!).  I then applied that CdA to the Kona course, but replaced my disk wheel with a deep wheel (for Kona).  Next, BBS also has an option that accounts for the difference in altitude between training & racing.  The conservative of the two options (acclimatized) suggests that my Kona normalized power should be 222W vs 210 at Boulder, a 6% increase in power.  It would probably be reasonable to also run the scenario where Kona power was equivalent to Boulder.  (At this point, I should also remark that I am actually stronger on the bike coming into Kona as compared to Boulder, as I accumulated several more long rides since Boulder, including some good climbing.  In addition, I believe the glute/hamstring functional work I had been doing also added some strength.)  So, with all these assumptions, the BBS estimates are as follows:

• Using 222W (acclimatized / power adjusted): 4:45
• Using 210W (not adjusted): 4:52

For historical purposes, here is the BBS summary:

One other method maybe applicable in estimating the bike split.  I looked at guys who raced Kona WELL after Boulder in 2015.  I found that they tended to ride about 5% slower at Kona vs. Boulder.  So, applying that factor to my Boulder bike split results in an estimate of 4:48, which is near the middle of the BBS estimates.

One last, and important comment: all this assumes the wind is moderate.  If it's a windy day -- like 2014, times will be slower (for everyone).

Run (Estimate: 3:10 to 3:21)

The following methods will be used to estimate the run split:

• When I heat trained for IM-Louisville (heat index similar to Kona), I found that my marathon was essentially the same as Boulder.  So, it seems the altitude offsets the heat.  So, the first estimate will simply be based on the run split at Boulder, a 3:21.
• However, as I reported in my post T-minus 14-days, I am running about 25-seconds per mile faster (at the same heart rate) a compared to the lead into Boulder.  Specifically, my run pace at race heart rate is 7:15/mile pace, which equates to a 3:10 run split.
• Using my recent experience here on the island, after heat acclimating for about 6-days, I am finding my "all day pace" to be about 7:40, which correlates to a heart rate of about 10-beats below my IM race effort.  Knowing that 10BPM results in about 23-seconds/mile (see the slope of the line in T-minus 14-days), results in a race pace of 7:17/mile, and a marathon split of 3:11.
• From the same analysis of guys who raced Kona well after Boulder in 2015, I found that they ran about 6% faster in Kona vs Boulder.  Applying that factor to my 3:21 Boulder run, suggests a 3:10 run split. 

Total (Estimate: 9:06 to 9:27)

Using the average transition times from the Boulder/Kona cohort of 9-minutes, and the previous splits, here is the overall estimate of what is possible (not a goal) at Kona this year:

Discipline	Fastest	Middle	Slowest
Swim	1:03	1:05	1:06
Bike	4:45	4:48	4:52
Run	3:10	3:15	3:21
T1+T2	0:08	0:08	0:08
Total	9:06	9:17	9:27

Ironman Kona 2015 Retrospect

While Kona-2015 was my best performance on the Island in my three attempts, it was surely not to my potential.  My health, fitness, and preparation going into Kona were solid (I think).  However, a few factors compounded that resulted in a sub-optimal performance.  The race started to decline for me coming back from Hawi (mile 60 on the bike).  I was having trouble holding power and was just not comfortable in the aero position.  So, there was a lot of siting up an slowing down in the last 2-hours.  I lost perhaps 15-minutes due to those issues.  Also, GI issues started near mile 90 on the bike.  I learned on New Years Day this year during a swim that EFS Liquid Shot + Pre-race does NOT sit well on my stomach.  The GI issues were so prevalent in 2015 that I had to use the porta-potty 11-times in the first 10-miles, and many more times all the way home.  Lastly, while I did heat train at home, it just wasn't enough; I was not prepared or the heat last year.  The GI issues an heat surely cost me perhaps 30-minutes on the marathon.

In short, I've figured out an important few things that hurt me last year and am more prepared, fitter, healthy, and tapered this year.

The Biggest Challenge

The biggest challenge I face now, is simply executing to my race plan, not getting caught in the immense GRAVITY of this race.  I am still trying to grasp the reasons behind the fear I have of this race.  I know this fear is simply distracting me and I need to put it behind me.  My plan on Saturday is to keep focused on the things I can control, starting with my attitude.

Race Plan

Pre-race

• Finish breakfast by 5am
• At transition by 5:30am

Swim

• Start to the left and middle
• Focus on a smooth, clean start
• Find some good feet to daft along as much as possible
• Steady on the way out; moderate on the way back

Bike

• Follow the PSI plan with a target of 44
• [edit 10/6/16] The following caps will apply:
• Heart Rate: 155BPM
• Power: 275W sustained (beyond 1-minute)
• [edit 10/6/16] I will assess the PSI target at the top of Hawi to ensure my heart rate and perceived effort (RPE) are within tolerance.  Specifically, I expect to see an average HR of 140BPM at the turn-around.  If the HR or RPE are higher than expected, I will drop the PSI accordingly.
• Bike nutrition:
• 0-60: ~800kCal EFS Liquid Shot
• 60-112: (special needs) ~800kCal EFS Drink + 1-scoop Pre-race

Run

• Maintain a heart rate of 145BPM
• Power-walk Palani
• Run nutrition:
• Miles 0-16.5: Gatorade + water
• Miles 16.5-20: (special needs) EFS Drink + 1-scoop Pre-race
• Miles 20-26.2: Coke

T-minus 14-Days + Run Pace Analysis

The Taper Has Started

It feels so strange to start tapering weeks out from an event, as I have gotten used to a 3-4 day taper for HIM's and perhaps a week taper for a full Ironman.  Nonetheless, I want to be both fit & fresh for Kona and the longer taper should give me that, especially for the all-important run.  As I indicated in the previous post (T-minus 27-Days), my plan was to end each Sunday with a linear reduction in my Training Stress Balance (TSB) from -45, to -30, to -15, to 0 race week.  Well, I like it when things go to plan!  As may be seen in the Performance Management Chart (PMC) below, I ended last Sunday with a TSB of -31.

However, these metrics LIE!  I felt pretty darn tired at the end of last week and through the first half of this week; and it really reflected on my long run (just 16-miles) Sunday.  Oh, well; it's been MONTHS since my last botched run.  I am glad to see that my Chronic Training Load (CTL) has reached a level higher than my prep for IM-Boulder.  That would suggest that I have more fitness going into Kona as compared to Boulder.

Run Fitness Has Emerged

As I also mentioned in previous post, my run performance has markedly improved since IM-Boulder.  Over the last few weeks, I have logged some incredible runs, including two 20-milers, and several bricks (after 100, 80, and 50-mile rides).  Frankly, the run pace has me flabbergasted.  As I mentioned last week, it looks like I am running faster -- at the same effort -- as compared to pre-IM-Boulder.  As detailed below, it's an astounding 25-seconds per mile faster.  That is nearly a 5% increase in speed, which was already a personal best, in just 6-weeks.

Run Pace Analysis

As detailed in IM-Boulder Race Recap, I estimated my run Ironman Boulder split within 1-minute of the actual split (3:21) with two different methods.  That analysis used several long runs and regression analysis to analyze pace vs. heart rate.  In training for IM-Boulder, I was running at a pace of 7:40/mile at a heart rate of 145BPM.  Data from the recent brick runs shows that I am running at a pace of 7:15/mile at the same (race effort) heart rate.

Final Three Weeks

Over the next three weeks, the plan includes:

• Doing one more 100-mile ride
• Including some intensity in the shorter rides
• Shortening the long run to 13-miles
• Bringing the TSB up to -15 by the end of week
• I leave for Kona on 9/28, a full 10-days ahead of the race, which should provide a good opportunity to heat acclimate and unload the logistical stress before the family arrives on 10/6

T-minus 27-days...

I have been vacillating about writing this post for the last several days, but reminded myself that the purpose of this blog is to document the journey of this season, which will culminate in 27-days at Kona.  I tend to speak (and write) when I have something to say; otherwise I remain quietly observant.  The last five weeks have been insightful in a few key ways that I think deserve some discussion.

Distraction

First, the photo below is an attempt at demonstrating the first lesson learned recently.  Sometime over the last few weeks, I found myself distracted from what is really important.  That is, after Ironman Boulder I found that I was focusing on the outcome of a good day at Kona (subject of pending post). However, in order to achieve the best possible outcome at Kona, I need to focus on the process -- every single swim catch, pedal stroke, foot strike, every breath, every training session, and every action between now and the last steps along Ali'i Drive.  I noticed the efficacy of this shift in focus on the Vasa swim trainer.  When concentrating on the left arm pulling wider and deeper, I get more power.  On the bike, more speed comes not from thinking of speed, but instead thinking of an efficient and round pedal stroke.   

A Balancing Act

While it's important to keep focused on the process, I still need to maintain a balance between the methodical process of training and dreaming (of some outcome).  While I will be satisfied with a well executed training plan and race, that satisfaction will be multiplied by achieving the goals I have been dreaming about and visualizing for some months now.  I guess one could imagine the process is the cake and the outcome is the frosting.

Current Training Status

After Ironman Boulder, it took a little more than three weeks to get back to the training level I wanted to achieve.  It seems like the short taper leading into Boulder did NOT necessarily result in the faster recovery I had expected.  However, I did race Boulder at a new level, so perhaps that added to the recovery time.  As may be seen in the Performance Management Chart (PMC) below, it was about 23-days between Boulder and a material ramp in my Chronic Training Load (CTL).

Also, as the PMC shows, my CTL is now above Boulder, and this week I was able to hit a TSB of -50, which should be considered the razor's edge (for me) -- training beyond this load risks injury and illness.

Some Training Additions

The second week after Boulder, I added some functional strength work, aimed at mitigating an expected reduction in training volume and to address some range of motion and muscle activation issues I have noticed.  In particular, I was trying to address the lack of gluteal activation on the bike and improve some hamstring range of motion, both of which are aimed at achieving more power on the bike.  The weight work has been extremely modest, aiming solely for some better nuero-muscular activation of my glutes.  While it has been modest, I had to take a week off the weights, as I had been so sore it was affecting my ability to train.  The functional strength work is under the guidance of a local Chiropractor & personal trainer, using the Foundation Training methods.  While still early in my exposure, I can appreciate the benefits this training may offer to both the bike and run performance in improving range of motion, posture, as well as core strength.

Lastly, in addition to the functional strength work, I got to climbing on the bike -- my Achilles heel.  This addition, too, is aimed at more power on the bike.

Land-based Training is Going Well

Some recent training performances have really surprised me, especially running.  This fact is surprising as my running, while consistent since Boulder, surely has not matched the training load of my cycling.  A few recent example include:

• Last weekend's 20-mile run was the first run in excess of 1-hour since Boulder.  I was amazed at how good my legs felt, all the way until mile-18.  It really goes to show the longevity of endurance training and benefit of frequency over duration.
• Last Thursday's brick was also surprising.  I rode an "easy" 100-miles, which was actually within 5% of Boulder's power, then ran 6.5-miles.  I started easy/comfortable (136BPM) with the first three miles at (Normal Graded Pace, NGP): 7:45, 7:22, 7:24.  Then, I decided to run the next three near threshold: 7:04, 6:45, 7:02.
• Today's 20-mile run, which ended with a Training Stress Balance near -50 was a new 20-mile run personal record: 7:40/mile (NGP) @ 136BPM.  The return 10-miles was at a NGP of 7:22/mile with a heart rate of 145BPM, which is where I raced Boulder at a NGP of 7:36/mile.  So, it appears my run fitness has improved since Boulder by ~14-seconds/mile at race heart rate. 

While land-based training is going well, my swim speed has somehow seriously declined.  I typically sacrifice swimming when my training load is challenging, as it has been.  However, I really have not neglected swimming to the degree my swim speed suggests.  I am now struggling to even hit 1:30 intervals on 100yds.  I will throw frequency at the problem and I suspect the speed will return by this time next week.

Final 4-weeks Plan

• Attempt to swim and run every day for the next 3-weeks
• I may try to get a 10k swim day in this coming week
• Maintain the bike strength & functional strength work through this week
• Start a long, gentle taper now bringing the Training Stress Balance (TSB) up to -30, -15, then 0 on the next three Sundays
• The long run will taper from 20 (today), to 16 next week (3-weeks out), 13 (2-weeks out), then 9 (1-week out)
• I'll probably try to keep the long rides at 100-miles for the next 2-weeks or until the weather forces me onto the trainer
• As distances shorten, I will be adding some intensity

Ironman Boulder 2016 Race Recap

Post Comments

• This race recap is lengthy & unconventional.  I suspect it could be subject to a great deal of criticism in the time it took to prepare and for folks to read.  However, I primarily wrote this for myself, to "internalize" the race before-hand, and now afterward.  My training was suggesting I could accomplish things I had never even fathomed previously.  So, I needed to go through the analysis before hand to convince myself of the feasibility of such grand plans.
• When writing & editing, I can't help but feel that this is mostly a "clinical" representation of the race and its preparation.  That fact is ironic when considering the amount of emotion that has gone into this race.
• Those who are able and interested to read through the entire post -- kudos, congrats, and thank you

Highlights

• Boulder was a "train-through" race (20-mile run 2-weeks prior); about a 1-week taper
• First age-group win; 6th overall in a time of 9:11
• 3rd overall, when considering just bike+run
• Run PR by 3-minutes, at elevation, on a harder course
• GI issue were non-existent; nutrition plan seems to be working
• Was able to maintain an elevated HR near plan
• At nearly the same heart rate (HR), run pace was 30-seconds per mile faster than last year

Race Goals

• Win my age group (this would be a first for a full distance IM)
• Qualify for Kona
• Recovery quickly so I may resume training (this is why I did a 1-week taper)
• Test my potential (to help inform the Kona plan, goals, and build confidence)

Race Plan

Swim: 

• seed with the 1:00 to 1:10 group
• start steady and build after the first turn to moderate effort

Bike:

• hold a 44 PSI (Power Speed Index), based on:
• Bob_McRae_2016_07_28_06_10_18.xlsx – 80-mile race-representative ride, where I held a PSI=42
• Train.v.Race.Speed.xlsx – that estimates the difference between training & racing –due to gear, race conditions (no slowing/stopping, etc.) is near 1.8-MPH
• This PSI is completely reasonable, as I held a PSI=43.3 last year and my race speed this year should be ~1.55-MPH faster than last year due to gear and other (unknown) factors.  Adding 1.55 to 43.3 results in a potential PSI of 44.9.  So, the saved power should result in a better run

Run: 

• Plan-A (feeling good): Hold a constant HR=145
• Plan-B (struggling): Hold a HR=145 on the ascents & descents; then HR=126 on flat sections
• Ascent/Descents: 0-1.5-miles, 6.5-14, 20-finish

Race Plan Risks

• Not able to elevate heart rate (HR), especially on the run
• Poor swim

Race Report

Pre-race: 

• My mom offered to take me to Boulder from our house in Arvada race morning; and we agreed to be rolling at 415am.  (Mom’s are GREAT!) The night before,  I prepared everything I could so that the morning would be quick, including my Mason Jar Breakfast (see below).  I was in bed by about 930pm and slept pretty well until about 2am, at which point I started the “did I miss my alarm” check every 30-minutes or so.  Alarm went off at 345am, and I started getting ready, which was pretty quick given my new training/racing breakfast.  I had everything ready and by the door at 4am.  We were rolling near 410am, at which time I started my Mason Jar Breakfast
• Mason Jar Breakfast: This is best prepared the night before and refridgerated.  It has a lot of fat, little fiber, no sweeteners.  Quart mason jar filled with the following: coconut milk (fat), a little chia seeds (helps hold things together as it gels), lots of hemp seeds (lots of good fat & protein with little fiber), 5g of Ribose, about 1-cup of blueberries, and then filled to about 80% with water; shaken.  The nice thing about this breakfast, beyond its nutrition benefits is that: (1) it can be prepared the night before, (2) it does not required heating, and (3) it can be simply drunk
• The ONLY access to race start (Boulder Reservoir) was via buses from Boulder High School; I was on bus @ 445am and at the reservoir near 515am; transition was scheduled to close at 6am; and race start at 620am.  On my way to the bike, I ran into fellow Dimond guys, Rob Gray and Chris Blick, who were already done and just hanging out.  There was enough time to get the bike prepared (most of that time waiting in line for access to air for the tires)
• Pre-race nutrition:  Mason Jar Breakfast (500kCal; 50kCal carbs) + 16-oz + 2-sccops Ucan (200kCal carbs)

Swim (actual: 1:07:54 / predicted: 1:03 to 1:08)

• IMB is a rolling start, where athletes group themselves based on their estimated swim split.  I seeded with the 1:00-1:15 group.  I was in the water about 60-90 seconds after the cannon went off.  The start was pretty easy with minimal contact (unlike 2015).  I started pretty easy and got into a good deep exhaling pattern quickly.  While I tried to find feet to draft, I could not find a good pair, so I swam most of the course myself.  In terms of swim execution, unlike many races, I was swimming straighter – without the significant right-bias that I normally see later in the swim.  I found myself within 10-yards of each buoy as we went by.  In terms of swim effort, I swam it like an Ironman: started “easy”, and elevated to moderate through the swim.  To be honest, I am still unclear why and a bit disappointed that my swim split was not middle of my predicted range.  Rob Gray and I have had a few swims together, including a 3-mile open water swim where we raced the second half and finished within 5-seconds of each other (he beat me!).  Rob even suggested that we should line up together at the start of our Ironman swim.  However, Rob swam 1:00:38.  Rob indicated in his race report that he swam easy and drafted 75% of the course.  As compared to the other races of the year, IMB was typical (I am swimming about 25% slower than the top-10 swimmers; see image below.)  Clearly, I still have more work to do!

• Swim Execution vs. Plan:  I swam straight, started easy, and built into a good effort.  So, from that perspective execution was all that I could have hoped for.  Of course the clock tells a different story.

T1 (0:03:52)

• T1 was uneventful and FAST.  The wetsuit strippers were awesome, as were the transition bag handlers.  I was able to run through the bag area and just grab my bag as they handed it to me.   The transition tent volunteers were excellent too, as they filled my bag with my swim stuff we I got ready for the bike.  I quickly donned my helmet, kept my bike shoes in hand, and ran to my bike.  I donned my shoes and grabbed my bike.

Bike (actual: 4:34:40 / predicted: 4:28 to 4:35)

• It should be noted that the IMB bike course is about 2-miles short, AND at altitude, so splits are abnormally fast.  However, during the first 30-miles, I noticed that my bike speed was not quite as fast as I had predicted (perhaps about ~0.5MPH slower).  So as to not make up the speed difference by “over-biking”, I decided to reduce the target PSI from 44 to 43.  With the second fastest bike split of ALL competitors, I cannot complain.  It’s clear in comparing my bike power to speed/splits via analytical tools and other riders, that I have established a VERY aerodynamic system.  There are several factors that explain the efficacy of this “system” including: (1) ability to hold aero position when appropriate and for the duration of the ride, (2) the PSI pacing approach, (3) equipment (bike, tubes, tires), speed suit, helmet.  At this point, the only way for me to go faster on the bike is to add more power.
• At about mile 30, I started to feel hungry; in hindsight, that was a good sign that my GI system was well primed and processing what I was putting in.  Also, I actually peed 4-times during the bike, also a very good sign.
• On a concerning note, I noticed at about mile-40, as I sat up at a reasonable speed (to stretch back or get water at the aid station), my headset/front wheel was wobbly.  I was concerned that a looseness I noticed (and did not fix; I did not touch it for fear of making ANY changes pre-race) may have worsened.   On a few occasions before a fast descent, I jerked the bars a bit to ensure everything seemed well-connected.  Fortunately, nothing deleterious occurred due to that issue.  I have since tightened my headset.
• After the first Nelson climb (40-miles) I noticed the race staring to thin out; the distance between riders began to get larger and larger.  This was a good sign!  At one point, I think I heard a report of being 8-minutes back.  I was doing the math in my head, knowing that the leaders probably swam a good 10-15 minutes faster than I.  I kept thinking did she say 18-minutes, 28-minutes…Not 18, because that sounds different; 28 seems like a lot.  8-minutes; wow, I’m really near the front of this whole race!
• At about 50-miles, I saw Rob Gray on the side of the road with a few other vehicles.  I was concerned that he may have crashed or something else.  However, he was present enough to recognize me and yell my name.  So, I kept hoping it was just a flat and that I’d see him pass me soon enough.
• Surprisingly, at about 60-miles, my back started getting sore, even with the stretching measures I was doing on the descents.  I was surprised given how much aero time I had in prep for this race.  However, that subsided by about mile 80.
• As we crossed the railroad tracks for the first time in Hygiene, I nearly lost my front hydration system and power meter!  Even when secured down with two rubber bands, the bottle launched out of its holder...right into my lap!  Imagine losing nutrition AND one’s pacing tool half way through an Ironman bike!  Fortunately, I was able to re-secure it on the go.  I swear those railroad tracks are far rougher during race-day than usual.
• Special needs requires special mention.  I had my 2nd nutrition bottle in the bag waiting for me.  Normally, one must try to navigate the crowd, keeping the bike straight, while opening a sealed bag.  Not a task one practices too often.  However, because the race was pretty thin, there wasn’t a crowd.  Also, the volunteer who grabbed my bag ripped it open and pulled out my bottle and handed it to me.  It was as smooth as a normal hand-over.
• Bike Execution vs. Plan:  My plan was to use my “Power-Speed Index” (PSI) approach to pacing and hold a PSI=44, then after about 30-miles, I adjusted the target to 43.  The chart below shows how I executed against that plan – spot-on.  I averaged a PSI=43.5.  The red line was the target PSI; the blue was actual; green is the difference (from the target PSI).  The most telling line is the purple one, which shows the cumulative difference from the target.  An ideal ride is one where the purple line is flat-lined at zero.  One, like that below that ends above zero indicates bike above the target PSI.  Indeed, starting at 3:30 I began to exceed the target.  Such a performance suggests good bike fitness relative to the plan/target and may lead to a good run.

• Bike Nutrition (1400kCal total): From miles 0-60, I used a 24-oz bottle with 800kCal of EFS Liquid Shot; from mile 60-112 I used a 24-oz bottle with 6-scoops (600kCal) of EFS Drink with 1-scoop of Pre-race.

T2 (0:03:22)

• Like T1, T2 was FAST.  I was able to simply hand-over the bike to a volunteer who took it flawlessly.  I then ran past all the T2 bags and a volunteer had mine in an extended arm for me to grab.  I entered the empty changing tent and asked the same question I did last year, “How many people have been through here?”  Last year, the estimate was about 50 (and they were right); this year, there was no estimate and the answer was “your 6th; Steve Johnson just left”.  My response, “6th place; wow!”

Run (actual: 3:21:39 / predicted: 3:22 to 3:27)

• Unlike 2015 where I started the run 50th overall and was able to run-down a bunch of guys (35 of them), this year I had only the “pointy-end” of the field ahead of me.  So, it was a matter of running to my plan.  At the start of the run, I passed a guy who simply said, “48”,  After a few seconds, I corrected him in saying “No, 86”.  Of course, he was talking about the number on my calf (my race age).  About 30-seconds later, still within ear-shot, I yelled back, “Oh, now I understand”.  It’s funny how the simplest things become difficult to process when working hard.  It felt good to be on the run and I started settling into the pace, trying to lower the heart rate.   My plan was to maintain 145BPM, but for the first 2-miles it was 150; not bad, but definitely needed to calm it down.  Of course, that correlated to a 7:24/mile pace!  Slowly, it settled to the planned range, but I was running a 7:27 pace and my “fast” alarm on the Garmin kept alerting me.  However, the plan was HR-based, so I kept on.  I saw the family for the first time at mile-1.  Christine let me know I was first in my age group.  I actually said to Christine, “How’s this for kicking the butt!”?  I kept looking for Steve Johnson and was able to see him near mile-3 or so, and then again near the first turn-around.  It was true, I was about 1-2 minutes behind Steve (who is a 9-hour Kona guy).  I was feeling pretty relaxed and cheering for the guys ahead of me as I saw them coming in the opposite direction after the turn-around.  I made my way to the lowest point of the course, did the turn-around, and prepared for the “ascent” – in quotes because it’s really not noticeable.  I was still running a 7:40 pace up the creek!  I saw the kids & Christine again at mile 8-9, and was hoping to hear about my gap on the 2nd place guy in my AG, but that did not come.  At mile 11 I saw Pete Alfino, who told me Steve is just ahead.  I was still in disbelief that I was keeping the gap with Steve.  As we approach the upper turn-around, the ascent does become noticeable.  However, I was still running strong, maintaining the 7:40 pace, and it was manageable.  I made the turn-around and the HR dropped immediately from the upper 140’s to lower 140’s (to be expected).  Also expected was the pace increasing to 7:13.  Now, I should mention that the fastest training paces I had done of any distance have been in the 7:30 range, so this was fast, relative to my training.  Also, considering my lab-tested threshold (last year) was 7:10/mile, this was “dangerous” territory.  Regardless, I kept to the HR plan.  I was feeling so well, that I asked the photographer on the descent to take a picture of my butt, which has my kids feel kicking my butt!  And finally, I get a picture while running with both feet off the ground simultaneously!

• I picked-up my special needs at mile13 or so, which contained my flask of EFS drink & Pre-race.  I sipped on that before the next few aid stations.  The descent was solid and everything was good until the penultimate turn-around (at the bottom of the course).  At about mile-20 – at the start of the ascent, my pace dropped to ~8:20/mile.  However, I was maintaining a reasonable HR of 143BPM.  I guess this was the earlier speed catching up to me.  As I saw Pete Alfino at mile 24, I said, “This is REALLLLLY hard”.  His response, “Just stay steady”, stuck with me through the rest of the climb to mile 24.  After the turn-around, I was able to capitalize on the descent and pick the pace back up to 7:44/mile.  Making the last turn to the finish was so sweet.  Then making it around to see the straight line to the finish, my heart just sprang from my chest.  While I have had so many wonderful moments in my life, including the birth of two wonderful children, finishing an Ironman is ALWAYS such a fulfilling experience.
• Run Nutrition (~750kCal total): Miles 0-20: 2-3-oz Gatorade; Miles 20-26: 2-3-oz Coke; Special needs: ½ scoop EFS + 1-scoop Pre-race.
• Run Execution vs. Plan: Plan-A was to run based on heart rate at 145BPM; Plan-B (if was I was not feeling as strong) was to run 145BPM on the ascents & descents, and 126 on the flat sections (miles 1.5-6.5 & 14.5-20).  Well, I felt pretty good up until mile-20, which is why I stuck to Plan-A.  In fact, I altered the plan and decided NOT to walk aid stations during that first 20-miles.  I was going after a few elusive goals: (1) a 3:15 marathon split, and (2) going under 9-hours for the day.

Finish (actual: 9:11:27 / predicted: 9:01 to 9:20)

Race Goal Assessment

• Win my age group – Accomplished – won by 14-minutes
• Qualify for Kona -- Yep
• Recovery quickly so I may resume training – A work in progress; at week 2 I have done a 80-mile ride and been running pretty consistently.  No nagging injuries.  Fatigue is the main issue to work through.
• Test my potential – The overall race performance and the run solidified my potential.  I feel like I have a shot at accomplishing my Kona goals (subject of another post)

Lessons Learned

• Fix ANY potential safety issues (e.g., loose headset)
• Find a better way to secure the front hydration system
• The estimated 1.8MPH difference between training& racing is actually probably closer to 1.3MPH (need to update the analysis with IMB2016)

Race Prep

Training

• Overall
• CTL=130 the Sunday before the race, at which point I really started the taper.  Overall CTL probably actually 13-points higher, as I was sick 4-weeks from the race.  As I did not train for 5-6 days, Training Peaks showed I lost 13 CTL points, which is supposed to be the measure of overall fitness.  I think it’s highly unlikely to lose 10% of one’s fitness in 1-week!
• Bike CTL = 67 the Sunday before the race, which is 52% of the overall
• Run CTL = 63 the Sunday before the race, which is 48% of the overall
• Peak week: ending 6/26/16

	MON	TUE	WED	THUR	FRI	SAT	SUN
Bike			12-miles1	90-miles		93-miles
Run		20-miles			11-miles		20-miles
Note: 1. Torque-endurance intervals

• Swim
• Mid-November through January was the heaviest swim block I have ever done.  In 75-days, I swam 75 times.  In January, I swam 100k yds.  For the ~8-wks prior to race, I focused more on technique with the help of Pete Alfino.  Swim volume was perhaps 10k/week and 3-4x per week.
• Bike
• Volume: 185-255, peaking at 310; typical pattern: 80-100 Thursday & Saturday, with some shorter rides on Wednesday & Fridays
• Running
• Volume: 25 – 40-miles/week; peaking at 60 in early June
• Consistent track sessions of leading to 10x 800’s at ~3:08 to 3:21 (Yasso 800’s); 3-weeks prior to race
• 5x long-runs of negative-split 20-miles, with the last one 2-weeks prior to race-day; average pace = 7:45, with peak sustain pace = 7:30/mile

Nutrition

• Early in the season, I would do the first workout (or two) fasted, including swim/spin sessions.
• As a result of some health issues and difficulty recovering from my HIM races earlier in the season, I started a Whole-30 program late May.  Now, I am generally following a Paleo diet, gluten and dairy-free for the last 3-months
• Carb restriction during Monday-Thursday race week; then carb re-load Friday & Saturday

Heat Training

• 8x Total session between 7/20/16 and 8/2/16, with 6x of them after 7/28/1

Training Differences From Prior 2-years

• Endurance deferral (bike) – While I had a solid early season of training, I did not start preparing for the distance of Ironman until late June (about 6-weeks prior to race-day).  Indeed, my first long ride (90-miles) was not until 6/23/16.  Running was different in that I started ramping in early April.
• Slowed down the runs – I faced some health issues through much of the early season, which tended to limit my ability to elevate my heart rate, especially while running.  However, during this time I also took the advice of a few folks (Rob Gray and Pete Alfino) that I should slow down my endurance training.  I really focused on running at a pace that felt comfortable, while in years past the effort was high enough that it was NOT comfortable.

Race Estimates

• The analysis below was completed prior to the race in an effort to help predict my performance and provide confidence that I could achieve those estimates.  These estimates are based on my potential, NOT worst-case, but what I could do on a perfect to good day
• My times are estimated as follows:

Split	Low	Nominal	High
Swim	1:03	1:05	1:08
Bike	4:28	4:31	4:35
Run	3:22	3:24	3:27
T1+T2	0:08	0:09	0:10
Total	9:01	9:09	9:20

• Swim: 1:03 to 1:08
• Assuming it will be a wetsuit swim: 1:02:30 to 1:07:42
• There are a few relevant benchmarks to use for an estimate: (1) 2014 IMB & my pool 500yd splits between 2016 & 2014, (2) 2016 IMB70.3, and (3) the BareBones 2016 3-mile swim
• Using the Swim Split from 2014 IMB (wetsuit) of 1:08:36, my 500yd pool split in 2014 of 7:30, and the 500yd 2016 pool split of ~6:50, my estimated swim split would be: 1:02:30
• Using the swim split from 2016 IMB70.3 (wetsuit) of 32:23 and simply doubling it, would yield an estimated swim split of: 1:04:46
• Using the BareBones 3-mile swim (wetsuit in Boulder reservoir) split of 1:24:37 would yield an estimated swim split of: 1:07:42
• Assuming a skinsuit swim: 1:11:26
• The most relevant benchmark is IMB2015 swim split and the 2015 vs. 2016 500yd pool splits
• Using the Swim Split from 2015 IMB (skinsuit) of 1:18:24, my 500yd pool split in 2015 of 7:30, and the 500yd 2016 pool split of ~6:50, my estimated swim split would be: 1:11:26
• Bike: 4:28 to 4:35
• Starting with an incremental estimation approach:
• The following changes result in faster times as compared to 2015:
• Same course profile & distance as 2015
• I will probably save an incremental 6-minutes due to improved clothing (LG suit & eliminating the Desoto bolero)
• Probably save 4-minutes due to the switch in helmets (from Giro Attack to LG)
• Probably save a whopping 8-minutes due to the improved tires
• So, the 4:46:24 split in 2015 would be reduced by 18-minutes, yielding an estimated bike split of 4:28:24
• Also, model is used to estimate the difference in 2016 training and racing speed
• The following model from 2015 data yields an adjusted R-squared = 0.94:
• speed [MPH]= race + a*grade + b*NP^1/3 
• where,
• speed in MPH, grade in %, NP in Watts
• race = 0.86 dummy variable
• a = -372
• b = 3.95
• Applied to the course profile of IMB2015 yields a total time within 4-minutes of the actual split
• This model will be primarily used to be able to compare the speed differences -- due to power -- between two similar rides (one training, one race) in 2016.  Separating the speed difference due to power, isolates the speed difference due to race conditions (minimal slowing, no stopping, etc.) and race gear (aero helmet, tires, tubes, disk cover).  The table below shows two similar ~40-mile segments of the IMB course (one main loop).  It shows that there was a 2.1MPH difference between the two segments, but the race segment had a higher power.  Using the model above, allows isolating (subtracting) the difference in speed due to power differences.  Thus, the remaining speed difference, 1.8-MPH, is the difference in speed due to race conditions in 2016.  For simplicity, this factor will be abbreviated as “diff”.

Date	NP [Watts]	Actual [MPH]	Description
06/11/2016	217	25.2	B70.3 -- 38-mile loop
06/09/2016	208	23.1	40-mile training
		2.1	diff
		0.3	due to power
		1.8	due to gear, etc

• Another factor is also used to make speed estimates.  That is, the 5% reduction in power between a full IM and half IM I have seen historically.  The most relevant course to use for the half IM is 2016, where my NP = 218Watts.
• Lastly, each of the estimates will consider that the IMB course is close to 110.5 miles in length
• Now, the model, the diff, and the 95% power factor are used to make different estimates of the IMB-2016 speed.
• The first estimate is the simplest, which uses a 99-mile ride on most of the IMB course on 7/23/16, where my average speed was 22.3-MPH.  Simply adding the 1.8-MPH diff, yields an estimated race speed of 24.1-MPH, which results in an estimated bike split of 4:35:29
• (2) The second estimate uses differences in speed between similar rides between 2015 & 2016, which indicates that I am riding about 0.75-MPH faster in 2016 than the prior year.  Adding half of this speed difference to the IMB-2015 speed (being conservative), adding the 2016 diff, and subtracting the 2015 diff (presumably included in the 2015 IMB speed) results in a speed estimate of 24.5-MPH, which results in an estimated bike split of 4:30:47
• Run: 3:22 to 3:27
• Three methods will be used to estimate my run split
• HIM vs IM Run Pace – When running well, I have observed that there is about a 5% reduction in run pace (and power on the bike) when comparing my HIM vs. IM splits.  For example, 2015 IMB70.3 was a 7:32/mile pace, where the first 14-miles of 2015 IMB run pace was 7:55.  (My pace did decline from miles 15-26, but that was due to muscular cramping, which was an isolated incident.)  This year, I ran a 7:20/mile pace @ IMB70.3.  Using the 5% reduction in pace yields a 7:42/mile pace and an estimated run split of 3:21:44.
• 20-mile run pace – My last two 20-mile runs (where I ended with TSB = -59 & -39) were run near a 7:45 pace and IM effort/HR.  Using this pace and adding 10-sec/mile for aid station walks, yields a run split of 3:27:25.
• During the 20-mile runs, the pace was intentionally varied and the terrain was not exactly as the IMB course.  So, a model was derived to estimate pace vs. HR in flat, descents, and ascents.  Based on that model, paces are predicted based on HR.  Applied to the IMB course, and assuming I can hold an average HR=145, yields an estimated pace of 7:42, which is a split of 3:21:48.
• Transitions: 0:09
• Using the top 18-finishers from last year, the average transition time was 0:08:46.