Florida 70.3 Race Plan & Forecast

Background

I write these race recaps, as they last longer than my memory and they help me get into  level of detail necessary to reflect the important aspects of the training and eventual execution of racing.  I think it's this detail that results in more effective learning -- and, faster racing.

The other reason I write these recaps, including time forecasts, is to help me believe what I am capable of.  Greatness must be preceded by belief.

Health

I should start with health, as it's the foundation of training performance, which directly affects racing potential.  In the last few months, I performed some functional blood testing and then later some stool testing based on some anomalies in the blood work.  The bloodwork showed a marked rise in my hemoglobin as compared to testing last fall.  When reviewing the test results with Chris Kelly (my "health coach", nourishbalancethrive.com) he keyed in on that marker quickly and understood the implications in endurance sport (he's an elite-level mountain bike racer).  He indicated that such a rise in hemoglobin could result in perhaps 10-15 additional Watts on the bike at threshold.  For me, that represents an increase of around 5%; translated into time, it means likely a 6 minute faster bike split in an Ironman.  At the time of the consult with Chris, I was focusing on running and HAD noticed that for a given effort (heart rate), my paces were some 20-seconds (~4%) faster per mile than last year.  It's hard to know what caused such a rise in my hemoglobin, but it could simply be a matter of improving my health over the last year under the guidance of Chris & team.  During that consult, Chris also keyed-in on some other markers that suggested a stool test was in order.  The results of that testing was really surprising, as they showed I had giardia!  It was surprising because I was not experiencing any of the nasty GI symptoms associated with that pathogen.  However, my lab tests DID correlate with my daughter's symptoms.  I remain amazed at how valuable the services Chris provides to both my family and me.

The only health-related issue I've faced (and is currently still with me) is some right hip facial adhesions and surrounding muscle soreness.  That injury has yet to impair my training, but surely it's been uncomfortable.  The trigger of this injury was likely the run volume ramp from 40 to 80 miles per week over a three week period in March this year.

On whole, in the last several months I have remained healthy and my training is surely benefited from that health.  With regard to training, I think of health as the vessel that one fills with work; the better the health, the more training one can absorb. 

Functional Strength

Other than a run volume build of 3-4 weeks, I've been diligent with a single strength session per week.  While the frequency has been modest and the weights light, I am convinced of the value.  I am sure they helped me reach new training heights with my running while remaining relatively injury free.

Swimming

Compared to last year (and history), I've implemented one important change in my swimming.  That is, I started swimming with the masters folks 2-3 times per week.  This change has been awesome, as I have had the opportunity to meet some really cool and capable folks, who push me in the water more than I would otherwise on my own.  It's also provided me with a great deal of confidence, as I have been able to benchmark myself against solid swimmers.  Surprisingly, I'm probably a middle-of-the-pack masters swimmer now!  I'm not sure if it's the quality of the workouts, the competitive environment, or the hemoglobin, but my swimming is also at new heights, as marked by achieving a 100yd PR in the Duncan 25yd pool of 1:09 at the end of 3000yd masters workout.  I suspect my swim splits this season will be in the 5th percentile of my age group.

Based on my current swimming performance my predicted swim split at FL70.3 is somewhere around 30:23, which is the 5th percentile of the AG from 2016.

Biking

While I did start teaching spin class 2x per week, as compared to last year, I have not changed much.  I did start biking a bit early in the year (January), but I'm probably biking one fewer session per week.  My typical schedule looks like this currently:

Monday: 1-hr hard spin

Wednesday: VO2max intervals

Friday: 1-hr HIM/tempo ride

Saturday: 1:50 torque-intervals (hard)

After my lab review session with Chris, I was eager to test my legs on the Computrainer.  However, it would be several more weeks before I had a staple workout that I could compare to last year.  Specifically, my first VO2max workout was the first opportunity to test my fitness.  Instead of using the standard workout of  8x3-min @ 300 Watts, I decided to test Chris' estimate of 15 more Watts at threshold.  So, I endeavored to increase the power from last year by 5%.  Surprisingly, it was totally doable.  So, the running & swimming performance was now clearly evident on the bike as well!

When does that happen, when performance in all three sports rises MARKEDLY?  Somewhat of a rhetorical question...that happens when you're healthy!

The chart below shows the large vertical offset in power vs heart rate as compared to last year, and to 2008 -- eight years ago and at seas level!  Based my higher threshold and HIM races last year, I now expect my HIM power to be in the range of 240-250 Watts.

    

Using 245 Watts and Best Bike Split, I estimated the FL70.3 bike split to be 2:15:36. 

Bike plan

I will use my standard Power Speed Index (PSI) approach, with a fixed index of 49 (a new high for sure).  I'll cap the power at 315 Watts.  For example, if I am traveling at 23 MPH, my power should be 260 Watts; if 28 MPH, I'll dial it down a bit to 210 Watts.

Running

My general objectives for 2017 are to improve my running and swimming performance, especially in the HIM distance.  As a result, running is where I focused in the early part of the year.  Starting in Early December, 2016 I started running slowly and ramping volume modestly.  At the end of March, I had accumulated a good 4 months of Maffatone running, achieving a "Maff" (all day / double marathon) pace between 7:20-7:40 (on the treadmill).  That last point is important; my running has been almost exclusively on the treadmill.  Now, I did calibrate my footpod with GPS twice during that period.  I peaked in March with 3-week block of 205-miles, with the last week being 80-miles.  In the last 4-weeks, I have added some intensity to my weekly volume, which has come down substantially from the 80 miles per week level; I am likely running about 25-35 miles per week currently.  Based on some longer intervals (2-3 miles) and some really cool work with R and Golden Cheetah, I can now see my running regression line, with an example run shown below.   Prepping for Ironman Boulder last year, I found such an analysis to be extremely predictive of my racing run splits.  In fact, my IM Boulder run split was within the predicted range (on the fastest end) of my forecasts.  What is also interesting about this particular chart is the inflection point that occurs near 150 beats per minute.  While I think this is a low heart rate for threshold, it might be a reasonable predictor of that metric (running LT).  What's interesting about this idea is that I could -- theoretically -- perform an LT test a few times per week without having to actually kill myself to perform that arduous test.  More on that in another post.

Based on my running regression line, my predicted HIM Pace should be near ~6:45/mile (at altitude).  Estimating somewhat conservatively, that would put the run split at a 1:28:25.  That run split would represent a pretty large run PR, which I think is near 1:34.

Run Plan

Run based on feel, holding a target HR of 155 BPM.

General

Applied to most of my early-season training, I have done a LOT of fasted workouts, including 45-min swim + 1:50 Torque-intervals and up to 15+ mile runs.  Clearly, with the Maffatone running, this strategy should result in the ability to lighten-up on the caloric load during the race, which proved successful at IM Boulder last year.

One metric that's pointing in the wrong direction for optimal race performance is my weight; I am nearly 15-pounds over race weight currently (165 vs 150)!  We'll see how that plays out on the run!

Race Forecast

Based on the previous estimated splits, the following table summarizes the race predicted splits.  This overall time last year would result in win of the age group by about 12-minutes, with a top-10 overall.  Based on how I have been feeling, I think there is some upside to these estimates with a potential for a top 3 overall.

	Pace/Power	Split
Swim		0:30:23
Bike	245Watts	2:15:36
Run	0:06:45	1:28:25
T1+T2		0:05:01
Total		4:19:26

Risk Factors

No estimate is complete without a disclaimer!  The top two now include:

• Treadmill running speed is inaccurate or not reproducible outdoors -- I have had a handful of outdoor runs this year and basically each one was horrible for one reason or the other.  Hopefully Sunday will break that trend!
• Not able to elevate HR -- The early part of this season has been pretty easy, with the bulk of my training at low intensity.  Hopefully that results in freshness on Sunday, rather than a shock.

2016 Review / 2017 General Plan

2016 Recap

2016 started with a dream, which is best epitomized in in the picture below where I was leading the race at HITS Ocala in April; I wanted to achieve a new level of performance in my athletic life.  The year ended with a an honor I would have previously not thought possible: the top spot in the United States for the male 45-49 age group USAT Rankings.  I remain in disbelief that I'm ranked among the top athletes in the US, some of which were professional athletes in their younger days.  It's amazing to me that such a thing is possible from a person with relatively modest athletic genes (I might be lucky to rank at a regional level based on my running for example).  Further, it demonstrates that incredible things are possible from modest beginnings when pursuing a dream with discipline and passion.  I credit the performance last year primarily to regaining my health, which had been in decline for years.  In this regard thanks goes to Nourish Balance Thrive founder Chris Kelley.

What worked in 2016?

A Good Break: After a cold prevented me from starting IM Arizona in November 2015, I took about 2-months completely off running & biking.  However, I decided to dedicate myself to swimming by the end of January I had logging 75 swims in as many days, and 100,000 yards in the pool for the month.  I think that early season break from the more demanding sports resulted in a freshness that served me well through the rest of the year.  In addition, I never felt like I was behind the 8-ball with regard to swimming, which allowed me to focus later on biking & running.  Further, the work in the pool through the year under the guidance of Pete Alfino of Mile High Multisport really yielded some substantive gains in races.  My swim splits at the Ironman World Championship over the last three years show that improvement from 1:19 to 1:14 to (an amazing) 1:02.

Slowing the Run: Pete had also suggested that I slow my running down.  Rob Gray, another trusted advisor and amazing athlete, also suggested I slow down.  Out of respect, I listened, and considered the suggestions, but the idea just did not make sense to me.  Historically, most of my training was performed in zone 2-3.  And, post-kids, my training actually probably tended toward zone 3-4.  My thinking was simple: train the upper aerobic system and the lower-end would follow.  More specifically, I felt elevating my modest threshold would result in the biggest gains in racing.  However, my body was rebelling early in 2016 -- I was chronically ill, which prevented me from elevating my heart rate without considerable discomfort.  Having ample experience with significant illness, I realized that I just needed to keep moving, even if slow.  Ironically, during this "crisis", I found a renewed love for running.  Since moving to Colorado, running had been always hard -- not like it was at sea level, when it was comfortable and therapeutic.  Slowing down to give my body time to heal, I began to enjoy running again.  So, from the early season through most of the year, my running remained relatively easy.  The efficacy of that approach is now clearly evident.  Not only did I set an Ironman run PR (at altitude and 6-years older), but I was also winning my age-group in a few races -- a first for me.  Further, with a full racing season, including two Ironmans, I still felt like I had more good training left in me at the end of 2016.

Run Volume: While I tried the Sami Inkinin approach to my early season running (run nearly every day, but short distance; e.g., 2-miles), it did not yield good running form for me.  What did work for me was increasing the run volume.  I am convinced that -- for me -- the long, negative-split runs were critical to my first AG win (Boulder 70.3) in June.  I just did not have a sufficient run fitness in the first two races of the season (PR70.3 & HITS Ocala).  St George was a bit of an anomaly in that I was feeling the effects of the illness that I'll discuss below.  It wasn't until I had 4 solid weeks of a run build that I began to feel strong in the most critical portion of the races.  From early May to early June, I increased my run volume from the 35 to 45 miles per week range, with my first 20-mile run occurring 4-days before Boulder 70.3.

Bike Strength: While I was making great strides swimming & running, I was also improving my biking strength.  Specifically, February through June, all my bike training was hard, short, and indoor. I kept my torque-intervals through the entire season, including during the Ironman build.  Lastly, I deferred any significant bike volume until just 7-weeks prior to Ironman Boulder.  Here again, the theme of freshness prevailed.  The results: the second fastest overall bike split at Ironman Boulder, and a HUGE bike split PR.  Further, a top 3-percentile (in the AG) bike split at the Ironman World Championship.

Regained Health: The foundation for the improvements discussed above, was NOT harder, longer, smarter training; it was improved health.  While all my paces were showing excellent potential in the early season, there was something wrong; I could not elevate my heart rate in training without significant discomfort.  This issue also impacted my ability to race.  As an example, I held the following heart rates during the run split of St George 70.3 in the three prior years: 158, 157, 148.  Clearly, something was wrong.  After some searching, I came across an organization called Nourish Balance Thrive, which is essentially a health-coaching business aimed at executes and athletes.  I heard the founder Chris Kelley speaking during a podcast and it caught my attention.  I made the decision that the investment in my health was worth it (starting is expensive, but what is worth more than one's health?) and started down the course with Chris.  We started the process in the standard way with a bunch of functional medicine testing involving nearly all my bodily fluids (and solids).  I also started some consults with his wife Julia on the first intervention -- diet.  WOW!  What a shock that was.  Specifically, this meat & potatoes & cheese guy was to start Whole30 -- meaning, no dairy, no grains, and no sugars.  After a few weeks of complaining, I started down that path in earnest.  I remember starting Whole30 just before St George last year, sitting across the table from a plate of nachos my wife Christine had ordered.  Oh my, what torture this was going to be!  Well, after 30-days I was pretty successful, with only a few minor deviations from the plan.  In hindsight, this was just the kick in the pants I needed.

The lab results started coming an and showed some significant deficiencies, including auto-immune antibodies and a pesky parasite.  Fortunately, most of these issues could be addressed with just a better diet.

Here again, the evidence is clear.  I went from having a difficult time elevating my heart rate in early May to winning my age group a month later.  However, that was just the beginning.  Something Chris said to me, perhaps in one our first meetings, was that while I may have been training like a beast, my body was not able to absorb the training due to illness.  Anyone who's trained for an endurance event knows that the main benefits accrue after several months or years of healthy, consistent training.  Which brings us to 2017!

2017 General Plan

I had decided last year to give my body a break from the rigors of Ironman training and racing for 2017.  Last year was heavy in terms of training, time commitment, and focus on a single thing.  I had also decided that I wanted to build my running & swimming strength further so that those disciplines could further my position in races.  However, since I'd like to return to Kona for another shot at the podium in 2018 when I "age-up" to the 50-54 age group, I decided to do a late-season Ironman, but with a very short bike build.

Goals

A plan has no direction without an objective.  For me, the following are my goals/focus for 2017:

• Achieve the #1 position in the USAT Rankings for 2017
• Achieve the #1 position in the US in the Ironman 70.3 rankings
• Podium at the Ironman 70.3 World Championship in September, 2017
• Qualify for Kona @ IM Louisville in October, 2017; I also have a "secret" goal for this race, which I may share later in the year

Training Strategies

For obvious reasons, I will be using many of the training strategies I used in 2016, but with some slight variations.  For example:

• Functional strength -- I saw some significant strength improvements between Bould & Kona last year, which I am sure was a result of fucntional strength work; I plan to maintain that through the year this year
• A balanced focus on swimming -- Keep the frequency at 4-5x per week, with volume near 12k; join in the masters swimmers for some speed & skill
• Keep the bike work indorr & high-intensity through the entire year; maintain the torque-intervals, even 2x per week
• A limited, three-week bike build for IM Louisville
• Log 3-full months of nearly exclusive Maffetone Run pacing (comfortable; 132-135BPM for me)
• Build run volume early -- In fact, get to the 20-mile long run before my first race in April

Kona 2016 Race Recap

Summary

Going into this race, I had the highest level of fitness, health, and confidence of my entire life.  However, based on my three prior attempts at Kona, I still felt I needed to master the swim, bike, run, heat, and nutrition -- that all seem to be unique to this race.  Needless to say, that was no small feat.  That said, I had convinced myself that I could actually WIN my age group in the Ironman World Championship -- something I would have NEVER previously considered even remotely possible.  While I did not accomplish all of my goals, I come away knowing that I can compete for the top spots on the world stage.  I gave it what I had and am proud of the effort, but I still have some "unfinished business" on the island.

Pre-race

• Race week: 
• I carb-restricted from Sunday to mid-morning Thursday. Then, Thursday and Friday I carb loaded.
• Based on some advice from Kathy Alfino (a VERY talented and accomplished Kona racer), I got spiritual.  I wont go into details here, but I will say that I spent some time communing with the Island and Madame Pele on several occasions.
• The Night Before:
• My sister, Brenda, and brother-and-law, Dave, were gracious enough to take the kids the night before the race.  What an incredible load off!  Since I had plenty of time to prepare, I was able to do my last Muse session.  I was pleased to see that I achieved a PR "calm" metric of 90%.  For the month prior, I had been focusing on the "mental" aspect of preparation for this race -- in addition to the physical.  
• Pete Alfino of Mile High Multisport sent me a link to a great, perfectly-timed, and appropriate TEDtalk about being in the moment -- something I think most of us struggle to achieve, even for brief periods.  It turned out that TEDtalk would come in VERY handy during the race, and help guide my day in a positive way, when it could have easily gone in the opposite direction.  (See Bike section for details.)
• It seemed my mental game was on par with the physical.
• Race morning: 
• Since I was traveling and did not have access to my staple breakfast, I tried a new one.  The improvised breakfast was simply about one half can of coconut milk (375kCal FAT), three scoops of UCAN (300kCal CHO), and water to make it drinkable.  While this concoction may sound gross, it was actually pretty good; it tasted like and had the texture of a yogurt smoothie.  I also ate two small "apple" bananas.  In addition to the UCAN/coco-milk drink, I also had two, 24oz bottles of water with 2-scoops UCAN each (another 400kCal CHO) prior to the start.
• I had planned to arrive at transition at 5am, but since Christine drover us and we actually got there 10-minutes early.  That early arrival was fortuitous, as the line for body-marking was chaotic and LOOOOOOONG.  In fact, it was 610am when I exited marking.  While the silicone numbers are cool, I'd be happier with more time in transition with hand-written numbers.  While I was concerned about the time, I was able to setup the bike quickly, with plenty of time to spare.  I was even able to visit the porta-potty one last time.  It was nice that transition remained open through both the pro-male and pro-female starts.

Swim (Estimated: 1:03 - 1:06 / Actual: 1:02)

Typical focused look exiting the water

• I entered the swim area at 645am, 10-minutes prior to the gun.  I swam out and positioned myself right in the middle (left-right and front-back) of the fray. As I treaded water, it started to get more congested -- as expected.  The growing excitement was palpable!  We were far enough out that we could not hear the announcements.
• Finally, the cannon went off (actually, I don't remember whether it was a cannon or horn).  My goal was for a clean, relaxed start.  Yeah, Right!  The immediate start was OK, but soon, the dispersed group started to converge and the contact began.  I figured it was only to be expected and would surely pass.  However, I was later surprised that the contact continued all the way to the turn-around, some 30-minutes after the start.  Anyone exposed to the mass-start understands how stressful that time is.  Indeed, it took me 4-years in triathlon to get used to that part of the race.  However, while the water was characteristically turbulent and contact was frequent & violent, I found myself  surprisingly calm -- the entire time, even while being pushed under water, scraped with someone's long nails, and even while being kicked in the face.  I simply focused on what I could control, which was keeping my arms out in front, elbows wide, face in the water, and breathing in a full, relaxed manner.  I am convinced this calm state resulted from the meditation work I started the month prior.
• Swim Performance: 
• Overall, the swim was faster this year as evidenced by the pro's existing the water near 48-minutes, where last year it was closer to 52:30.  Applying that factor to my 2015 swim split would have predicted a 1:07 split for this year.  So, it appears I knocked off a good 5-minutes (7%) as compared to last year.  
• Also, using the other metric of my swim speed vs the top swimmers, last year I swam 40% slower, this year 30% slower.  
• Based on my 100m speed, I swam 16% faster this year vs last year.
• Finally, last year, my swim split was right in the middle of the 45-49 Age Group (AG); this year, the split was in the top 26th-percentile.
• All of these metrics suggest a substantial improvement in my swim -- thanks Pete Alfino for all the, guidance, workouts, and encouragement!  It really paid off!  I had been hoping for a 1:05 or so and talked with Pete a bunch about that.  I am sure Pete was more surprised than I was in the swim split!
• I am convinced that the swim split was significantly enhanced by the proportion of drafting.  I was probably in a good draft position for 75% of the swim.

Bike (Estimated: 4:45 to 4:52 / Actual: 4:59)

• As I exited T1, I looked at my front tire and saw it was completely flat.  I started yelling “tech support, tech support!”  I asked one of the volunteers there and was informed there was none and I had to take care of the flat myself.  I couldn’t believe I was about to start an Ironman ride with no flat replacement. However, as I struggled to remove the front tire from the rim, someone grabbed the wheel from me, and said, “grab your bike”.  I picked up the bike and ran after my savoir. A few tech-support guys were there with a new tube and pump.  While they were changing the tube, the guy who helped me was advising me to take it easy and not to try and make up the lost time, as it would be just 2-3 minutes.  As he was talking, I realized this guy was Andrew Messeck (CEO of Ironman).  I said, “Are you Andrew?” and introduced myself.  In response to his advice, I told him that I had a plan and was 2-minutes ahead of schedule  (due to the fast swim split).  My plan relied on a power meter...
• As I re-mounted the bike and looked at the power meter, it showed a dead battery symbol!  Andrew suggested that sometimes it’s best just to ride by feel.  Sure, I thought to myself, but how, precisely.  I decided to pace my effort based on breathing.  This decision was extremely fortuitous, as I had spent the last month learning how to meditate while focusing on my breath. Combined with the aforementioned TEDtalk, this pacing strategy worked VERY well -- and may replace my power/speed-based pacing strategy.  (More on that later.)  In retrospect, I cannot believe my power meter battery was dead, as I had just changed it prior to leaving for Hawaii.  Also, I had logged 2-3 reasonable rides while on the island.
• Even though I was on "plan C" at this point, I was still feeling in control and calm.  I had a plan and would work it though the bike.  I settled-in and started the getting into a relaxed breathing pattern -- of course, amidst a bunch of amped-up riders.  Riding at a moderate perceived effort up Kuakini highway, I started making some passes.  Then, I gave those away on the descent (all per plan).  I got to see the family for the first time riding up Palani.  In fact, I saw Brenda and was able to ride close enough for a high-five, but she did not see me in time to respond.  I rode Palani in a clam, relaxed manner, but many of the other riders were killing themselves.  Nutty.

Cruising up Palani 

• The pacing strategy was working well; I was feeling really good as we got started on our way out to Waikoloa.  This point was where I started to see the draft packs -- just blatant pack riding.
• As we reached Waikoloa, the wind started to pick-up.  I just focused on a steady, moderate effort and just worked with the wind.  (Hello Madame Pele.)  That approach worked very well, as I started to advance appreciably.  The wind seemed to be more of a consistent head/cross wind without the abrupt gusts for which Kona is notorious.  My progress among the field continued as the wind strength grew and we rode through North Kohala.  As we approached Hawi and I started seeing age-groupers on their way back, I estimated my position; I was amazed to find there were perhaps 500 guys ahead of me.  I figured that if I could pass just 10 riders per remaining mile I could get to the pointy-end of the field.  Very reasonable.
• The effort-based pacing approach and in-the-now focus made the ride go by very quickly.  There was NEVER a moment during the ride where I was thinking, "XX miles to go" -- because the end didn't matter; what mattered was what I was doing at each moment.

Powering back to town

• Bike Performance:
• The difference between my estimated bike split and actual was likely due to the higher winds vs the estimating model (upon which my bike estimates were based).
• An anecdotal approach to judging performance is also based on my observation of other riders during the course.  After the Hawi decent, I was in passing mode; I probably passed 200 riders, including perhaps 3 other Dimonds.
• As my power meter did not record, I can only judge my bike split using other tools.  One approach includes looking at my bike splits at various points along the course as compared to the best riders, the top 3 pro men splits.  Other than the 99.5-mile split, my pace was consistent compared to the best riders on the course.  (That particular section is an uphill grade (and in a headwind), and I think there must have been some leader tactics explaining the high speed there for the pros.)  What I find amusing about this analysis is that I actually rode faster or on par with than Jan Frodeno (jf) for nearly 20 or the early miles.  He must have really been relaxing during that period.

Ride consistency vs pros

• Another approach is based on Best Bike Split and the power/split data from several other riders (pro's).  I had to adjust the nominal race to account for the higher wind, but based on those adjustments, it appears I had to generate between 215-230W average power and probably between 230-250W normalized Watts in order to achieve the split.  Just using the estimated average power, that was between 11%-19% more power than IM Boulder.  I knew going into the race that I was stronger than Boulder, but I think this performance surely demonstrates that fact.  I attribute that additional strength to the functional strength and flexibility work I did, specifically focusing on bike effectiveness.
• A few techniques and conditions help advance the bike split, including:
• Slingshot -- frankly, I never even considered this technique until Steffen Brocks had suggested that being a feasible strategy for strong riders.  The idea being that by riding moderately faster than the surrounding riders, you can ride up on a leading rider, and then swing-out for the pass.  As long as the pass is completed within 20-seconds, this approach is totally legal and a reasonable passing/riding approach.
• Wind -- The wind was actually my biggest relative advantage, as I was able to advance more positions as the wind picked-up.  This advantage was due to a few factors including: a very aerodynamic system ( position, gear, bike, etc), and a pacing strategy that varies based on speed.  As the wind picked-up, I put in more effort and got more relative speed.
• Bike Nutrition
• Nutrition did NOT vary from the original plan, which was  800kCal of EFS Liquid Shot up to Hawai; then 800kCal of EFS Drink + 1-scoop Pre-race to the finish.  All-in-all, it was 320kCal/hour (a good amount for me).
• I finished the ride feeling very good with regard to my hydration & GI status.

Run (Estimated: 3:10 to 3:21 / Actual: 3:33)

• While I was a bit disappointed in my bike position, I expected that could outrun perhaps 80% of the field ahead.  The first part of the run was all about calming the heart rate (HR) and getting to my target.  Actually, I was able to do that immediately.  The first 5-miles I was running per plan (HR = 145BPM) and at a 7:20/mile pace (a 3:12 run split).  However, I must have been passed by dozens of guys who went by me like I was just slogging along.  They must have slowed down substantially, as I only ended up losing one place during the run split.  The picture below shows that I was feeling pretty good as the run started.

Feeling good at the start of the run

• Before the race,  I had imagined running into Natasha Badmann.  Sure enough, at mile 4 of the run, I caught her.  At that point, I was feeling pretty good and was a bit giddy.  She must have thought I was a nut, as I told her, “you’re my hero”.  I also congratulated her on such a successful career.  This interaction occurred just before seeing the family, and I proceed to tell them that Natasha was just behind me.  It was great seeing the family and giving Brenda and Alexander high-fives.

High-five with Brenda (am I smiling or is that grimace?)

• At about mile 7, I started feeling “off”.  It started with side-stitches, which turned into stomach cramping, then bloating.  Sometime after that, I switched from Gatorade to Coke, which seemed to help, but still my stomach was not settled.  At this point, my run slowed to a 7:53/mile pace (and HR=142).
• The Palani grade was not nearly as bad as I remembered from prior years.  It did feel hotter there (the only time during the run I really felt hot), but the grade was manageable.  I probably ran 50% of the climb.
• Out on the Queen-K, from miles 10-15, my HR and pace dropped a bit further (139BPM/8:25-min/mile), as I was still managing the GI discomfort.  
• Just prior to the turn-around in the Energy Lab, I was reduced to a walk, as any more effort would have led to vomiting.  In the 15-20 mile range, my effort/pace dropped to the 131BPM & 8:59/mile pace -- the lowest of the course.  Somewhere near the Energy Lab turn-around, I tried Redbull, which may have been the final thing that settled my stomach.  From the turn-around I was able to run again.
• Back out on the Queen-K, I felt like I was running well (and fast), however my pace was still just 8-min/mile (with the aid station power walks).  The Garmin file shows an erroneously low HR from mile-23 on.   The pace from 20-26.2 was a 8:04.  The last mile was a respectable 7:10/mile pace.  (I have always had the secret goal of running the last mile at a sub-7/mile pace and I got close.)
• Run Performance:
• As with prior years, my GI system was a huge limiter.  When (and if) I return to Kona, I expect to have this final issue addressed.
• Clearly, I was at least 12-minutes shy of my slowest estimated time.  From the HR/Pace analysis, had I been able to hold a HR of 145BPM, I could have achieved a 3:18 run split, which would have put me in 7th in the AG.

Overall

• The table below summarizes the three main disciplines, along with the estimated splits.  I lost about 15-minutes on the run due to the GI issues, and about 2-minutes at T1 due to the tube change.  So, a realistic time would have been 9:28, which would have placed me 7th in the AG,  still 14-minutes behind the winner.

Discipline	Estimate	Actual	Comments
Swim	1:03 to 1:06	1:02	Calm and relaxed
Bike	4:45 to 4:52	4:59	Wind explains the slower bike
Run	3:10 to 3:21	3:33	GI issues

• So far, I have broken each of the three legs down, independently.  It's worth considering whether my sub-optimal run resulted from over-extending myself on the swim and/or run.  During the swim, I kept thinking of how I as going to explain a slow-split, which was due to the heavy contact in the first half and a slow draft in the second half.  As I had mentioned previously, I did not burn any matches as a result of the chaos for the first 30-minutes; then, in the second half, I was pretty relaxed.  As for the bike, I remember finishing strong and completely alert.  I would not describe myself as "fresh" finishing the ride, but close.  Also, I was at the highest level of fitness of the season going into this race; and also had an extensive taper.  Thus, I am confident I had the endurance and freshness to back-up the swim+bike.  Lastly, as may be seen from my run splits, I was able to finish the run with a faster pace than the middle.
• Even if I had been able to run without the GI issues (at a 7:33/mile), I would have finished 7th in the AG, still 14-minutes behind the AG winner.  As compared to the median splits of the top-5 (AG), I was about 2-minutes slower in the swim, 2.5-minutes on the bike, and a full 17.5 minutes on the run (2-minutes if I could have run unencumbered).  This information will be helpful as approach future seasons on where to spend my training time.

Goal Assessment

I had set just one goal going into this race -- to race to my potential.  In hindsight, that was not a well-defined goal, as it was not entirely in my control.  However, earlier this season, I had three goals: (1) win my AG at IM Boulder [accomplished], (2) go sub-10-hours at Kona [accomplished], and (3) place within the top-10 in the AG @ Kona [missed].

Gratitude

This recap would not be complete without expressing my gratitude to several folks, including:

• Christine -- without your daily support, none of this would be possible
• Brenda & Dave -- For all your help with the kids and cheering me on at the race
• Mom -- for your continuous support and belief in me
• Pete Alfino -- for helping me master the swim and being a great sounding board
• Bill Plock -- who planted the seed a year ago that a top-10 in Kona was possible for me
• Rob Gray -- for providing a great example of how to master the sport of long-course triathlon

Kona 2016 Race Forecast & Plan

Background

Like Ironman Boulder, I will make estimates of my race times for Kona.  I do this exercise for a few reasons.  First and foremost, I do it because it helps me wrap my head around what is possible.  For me, the act of performing the analysis and writing it down helps make it real.  If I had not performed the analysis leading into Boulder, I would have NEVER thought it possible that I could approach the 9-hour mark in an Ironman, but I did.  Also, this exercise helps set reasonable expectations.  These estimates are not goals, but are useful in assessing objectively a performance relative to my potential.  In my mind, this is one of the most fundamental needs all athletes have -- to know how close they are to their potential.  Lastly, these estimates act as motivators for me.  They are a line in the sand I know I should be able to reach. As a result, these benchmarks act as a performance enhancer.

This analysis will be far simpler than the one for Ironman Boulder, as I now have a very recent Ironman where I raced very near my potential.  That performance will serve as the most influential data point in my estimates.

Split Estimates

These estimates are based on several data points, but will use Kona-2015 as the baseline.

Swim (Estimate: 1:03 to 1:06)

This estimate will perhaps be the simplest, as it is based on these three views:

1. I swam a ~1:03 in the Practice Swim on the Kona swim course last weekend (wow; what a surprise!).  However, I learned that the course was about 200-yards shorter than last year (but still the accurate 4200 yards). 
2. For me, that 200-yards equates to about 3-minutes. Assume that the Kona course will be 200-yards longer than the practice swim, which would equate to a 1:06 swim split.
3. As discussed in the IM-Boulder Race Recap post, my swim times this year are about 25% slower than the best swimmers.  The fastest swimmers in Kona came out of the water (2015) near 52-minutes.  Therefore, this method estimates my swim split as 1:05.

Bike (Estimate: 4:45 to 4:52)

This estimate is based on an online bike split tool -- BestBikeSplit (BBS).  While the tool is somewhat of a black-box, there is a lot of detail leading into the estimate.  First, I used BBS to estimate the IM--Boulder split, using my actual power; it was VERY close (within 1-2 minutes).  I then adjusted the coefficient of drag (CdA) so that the BBS estimate matched my actual time.  The theory being that the difference in the estimate is that I am actually more aero than BBS expected (thanks Dimond Bikes!).  I then applied that CdA to the Kona course, but replaced my disk wheel with a deep wheel (for Kona).  Next, BBS also has an option that accounts for the difference in altitude between training & racing.  The conservative of the two options (acclimatized) suggests that my Kona normalized power should be 222W vs 210 at Boulder, a 6% increase in power.  It would probably be reasonable to also run the scenario where Kona power was equivalent to Boulder.  (At this point, I should also remark that I am actually stronger on the bike coming into Kona as compared to Boulder, as I accumulated several more long rides since Boulder, including some good climbing.  In addition, I believe the glute/hamstring functional work I had been doing also added some strength.)  So, with all these assumptions, the BBS estimates are as follows:

• Using 222W (acclimatized / power adjusted): 4:45
• Using 210W (not adjusted): 4:52

For historical purposes, here is the BBS summary:

One other method maybe applicable in estimating the bike split.  I looked at guys who raced Kona WELL after Boulder in 2015.  I found that they tended to ride about 5% slower at Kona vs. Boulder.  So, applying that factor to my Boulder bike split results in an estimate of 4:48, which is near the middle of the BBS estimates.

One last, and important comment: all this assumes the wind is moderate.  If it's a windy day -- like 2014, times will be slower (for everyone).

Run (Estimate: 3:10 to 3:21)

The following methods will be used to estimate the run split:

• When I heat trained for IM-Louisville (heat index similar to Kona), I found that my marathon was essentially the same as Boulder.  So, it seems the altitude offsets the heat.  So, the first estimate will simply be based on the run split at Boulder, a 3:21.
• However, as I reported in my post T-minus 14-days, I am running about 25-seconds per mile faster (at the same heart rate) a compared to the lead into Boulder.  Specifically, my run pace at race heart rate is 7:15/mile pace, which equates to a 3:10 run split.
• Using my recent experience here on the island, after heat acclimating for about 6-days, I am finding my "all day pace" to be about 7:40, which correlates to a heart rate of about 10-beats below my IM race effort.  Knowing that 10BPM results in about 23-seconds/mile (see the slope of the line in T-minus 14-days), results in a race pace of 7:17/mile, and a marathon split of 3:11.
• From the same analysis of guys who raced Kona well after Boulder in 2015, I found that they ran about 6% faster in Kona vs Boulder.  Applying that factor to my 3:21 Boulder run, suggests a 3:10 run split. 

Total (Estimate: 9:06 to 9:27)

Using the average transition times from the Boulder/Kona cohort of 9-minutes, and the previous splits, here is the overall estimate of what is possible (not a goal) at Kona this year:

Discipline	Fastest	Middle	Slowest
Swim	1:03	1:05	1:06
Bike	4:45	4:48	4:52
Run	3:10	3:15	3:21
T1+T2	0:08	0:08	0:08
Total	9:06	9:17	9:27

Ironman Kona 2015 Retrospect

While Kona-2015 was my best performance on the Island in my three attempts, it was surely not to my potential.  My health, fitness, and preparation going into Kona were solid (I think).  However, a few factors compounded that resulted in a sub-optimal performance.  The race started to decline for me coming back from Hawi (mile 60 on the bike).  I was having trouble holding power and was just not comfortable in the aero position.  So, there was a lot of siting up an slowing down in the last 2-hours.  I lost perhaps 15-minutes due to those issues.  Also, GI issues started near mile 90 on the bike.  I learned on New Years Day this year during a swim that EFS Liquid Shot + Pre-race does NOT sit well on my stomach.  The GI issues were so prevalent in 2015 that I had to use the porta-potty 11-times in the first 10-miles, and many more times all the way home.  Lastly, while I did heat train at home, it just wasn't enough; I was not prepared or the heat last year.  The GI issues an heat surely cost me perhaps 30-minutes on the marathon.

In short, I've figured out an important few things that hurt me last year and am more prepared, fitter, healthy, and tapered this year.

The Biggest Challenge

The biggest challenge I face now, is simply executing to my race plan, not getting caught in the immense GRAVITY of this race.  I am still trying to grasp the reasons behind the fear I have of this race.  I know this fear is simply distracting me and I need to put it behind me.  My plan on Saturday is to keep focused on the things I can control, starting with my attitude.

Race Plan

Pre-race

• Finish breakfast by 5am
• At transition by 5:30am

Swim

• Start to the left and middle
• Focus on a smooth, clean start
• Find some good feet to daft along as much as possible
• Steady on the way out; moderate on the way back

Bike

• Follow the PSI plan with a target of 44
• [edit 10/6/16] The following caps will apply:
• Heart Rate: 155BPM
• Power: 275W sustained (beyond 1-minute)
• [edit 10/6/16] I will assess the PSI target at the top of Hawi to ensure my heart rate and perceived effort (RPE) are within tolerance.  Specifically, I expect to see an average HR of 140BPM at the turn-around.  If the HR or RPE are higher than expected, I will drop the PSI accordingly.
• Bike nutrition:
• 0-60: ~800kCal EFS Liquid Shot
• 60-112: (special needs) ~800kCal EFS Drink + 1-scoop Pre-race

Run

• Maintain a heart rate of 145BPM
• Power-walk Palani
• Run nutrition:
• Miles 0-16.5: Gatorade + water
• Miles 16.5-20: (special needs) EFS Drink + 1-scoop Pre-race
• Miles 20-26.2: Coke

T-minus 14-Days + Run Pace Analysis

The Taper Has Started

It feels so strange to start tapering weeks out from an event, as I have gotten used to a 3-4 day taper for HIM's and perhaps a week taper for a full Ironman.  Nonetheless, I want to be both fit & fresh for Kona and the longer taper should give me that, especially for the all-important run.  As I indicated in the previous post (T-minus 27-Days), my plan was to end each Sunday with a linear reduction in my Training Stress Balance (TSB) from -45, to -30, to -15, to 0 race week.  Well, I like it when things go to plan!  As may be seen in the Performance Management Chart (PMC) below, I ended last Sunday with a TSB of -31.

However, these metrics LIE!  I felt pretty darn tired at the end of last week and through the first half of this week; and it really reflected on my long run (just 16-miles) Sunday.  Oh, well; it's been MONTHS since my last botched run.  I am glad to see that my Chronic Training Load (CTL) has reached a level higher than my prep for IM-Boulder.  That would suggest that I have more fitness going into Kona as compared to Boulder.

Run Fitness Has Emerged

As I also mentioned in previous post, my run performance has markedly improved since IM-Boulder.  Over the last few weeks, I have logged some incredible runs, including two 20-milers, and several bricks (after 100, 80, and 50-mile rides).  Frankly, the run pace has me flabbergasted.  As I mentioned last week, it looks like I am running faster -- at the same effort -- as compared to pre-IM-Boulder.  As detailed below, it's an astounding 25-seconds per mile faster.  That is nearly a 5% increase in speed, which was already a personal best, in just 6-weeks.

Run Pace Analysis

As detailed in IM-Boulder Race Recap, I estimated my run Ironman Boulder split within 1-minute of the actual split (3:21) with two different methods.  That analysis used several long runs and regression analysis to analyze pace vs. heart rate.  In training for IM-Boulder, I was running at a pace of 7:40/mile at a heart rate of 145BPM.  Data from the recent brick runs shows that I am running at a pace of 7:15/mile at the same (race effort) heart rate.

Final Three Weeks

Over the next three weeks, the plan includes:

• Doing one more 100-mile ride
• Including some intensity in the shorter rides
• Shortening the long run to 13-miles
• Bringing the TSB up to -15 by the end of week
• I leave for Kona on 9/28, a full 10-days ahead of the race, which should provide a good opportunity to heat acclimate and unload the logistical stress before the family arrives on 10/6

T-minus 27-days...

I have been vacillating about writing this post for the last several days, but reminded myself that the purpose of this blog is to document the journey of this season, which will culminate in 27-days at Kona.  I tend to speak (and write) when I have something to say; otherwise I remain quietly observant.  The last five weeks have been insightful in a few key ways that I think deserve some discussion.

Distraction

First, the photo below is an attempt at demonstrating the first lesson learned recently.  Sometime over the last few weeks, I found myself distracted from what is really important.  That is, after Ironman Boulder I found that I was focusing on the outcome of a good day at Kona (subject of pending post). However, in order to achieve the best possible outcome at Kona, I need to focus on the process -- every single swim catch, pedal stroke, foot strike, every breath, every training session, and every action between now and the last steps along Ali'i Drive.  I noticed the efficacy of this shift in focus on the Vasa swim trainer.  When concentrating on the left arm pulling wider and deeper, I get more power.  On the bike, more speed comes not from thinking of speed, but instead thinking of an efficient and round pedal stroke.   

A Balancing Act

While it's important to keep focused on the process, I still need to maintain a balance between the methodical process of training and dreaming (of some outcome).  While I will be satisfied with a well executed training plan and race, that satisfaction will be multiplied by achieving the goals I have been dreaming about and visualizing for some months now.  I guess one could imagine the process is the cake and the outcome is the frosting.

Current Training Status

After Ironman Boulder, it took a little more than three weeks to get back to the training level I wanted to achieve.  It seems like the short taper leading into Boulder did NOT necessarily result in the faster recovery I had expected.  However, I did race Boulder at a new level, so perhaps that added to the recovery time.  As may be seen in the Performance Management Chart (PMC) below, it was about 23-days between Boulder and a material ramp in my Chronic Training Load (CTL).

Also, as the PMC shows, my CTL is now above Boulder, and this week I was able to hit a TSB of -50, which should be considered the razor's edge (for me) -- training beyond this load risks injury and illness.

Some Training Additions

The second week after Boulder, I added some functional strength work, aimed at mitigating an expected reduction in training volume and to address some range of motion and muscle activation issues I have noticed.  In particular, I was trying to address the lack of gluteal activation on the bike and improve some hamstring range of motion, both of which are aimed at achieving more power on the bike.  The weight work has been extremely modest, aiming solely for some better nuero-muscular activation of my glutes.  While it has been modest, I had to take a week off the weights, as I had been so sore it was affecting my ability to train.  The functional strength work is under the guidance of a local Chiropractor & personal trainer, using the Foundation Training methods.  While still early in my exposure, I can appreciate the benefits this training may offer to both the bike and run performance in improving range of motion, posture, as well as core strength.

Lastly, in addition to the functional strength work, I got to climbing on the bike -- my Achilles heel.  This addition, too, is aimed at more power on the bike.

Land-based Training is Going Well

Some recent training performances have really surprised me, especially running.  This fact is surprising as my running, while consistent since Boulder, surely has not matched the training load of my cycling.  A few recent example include:

• Last weekend's 20-mile run was the first run in excess of 1-hour since Boulder.  I was amazed at how good my legs felt, all the way until mile-18.  It really goes to show the longevity of endurance training and benefit of frequency over duration.
• Last Thursday's brick was also surprising.  I rode an "easy" 100-miles, which was actually within 5% of Boulder's power, then ran 6.5-miles.  I started easy/comfortable (136BPM) with the first three miles at (Normal Graded Pace, NGP): 7:45, 7:22, 7:24.  Then, I decided to run the next three near threshold: 7:04, 6:45, 7:02.
• Today's 20-mile run, which ended with a Training Stress Balance near -50 was a new 20-mile run personal record: 7:40/mile (NGP) @ 136BPM.  The return 10-miles was at a NGP of 7:22/mile with a heart rate of 145BPM, which is where I raced Boulder at a NGP of 7:36/mile.  So, it appears my run fitness has improved since Boulder by ~14-seconds/mile at race heart rate. 

While land-based training is going well, my swim speed has somehow seriously declined.  I typically sacrifice swimming when my training load is challenging, as it has been.  However, I really have not neglected swimming to the degree my swim speed suggests.  I am now struggling to even hit 1:30 intervals on 100yds.  I will throw frequency at the problem and I suspect the speed will return by this time next week.

Final 4-weeks Plan

• Attempt to swim and run every day for the next 3-weeks
• I may try to get a 10k swim day in this coming week
• Maintain the bike strength & functional strength work through this week
• Start a long, gentle taper now bringing the Training Stress Balance (TSB) up to -30, -15, then 0 on the next three Sundays
• The long run will taper from 20 (today), to 16 next week (3-weeks out), 13 (2-weeks out), then 9 (1-week out)
• I'll probably try to keep the long rides at 100-miles for the next 2-weeks or until the weather forces me onto the trainer
• As distances shorten, I will be adding some intensity