Ironman Boulder Race Plan & Estimates

Summary

I am writing this post to help solidify my confidence of my potential to perform at Ironman Boulder, 2018.  This is a companion post to the more extensive, Ironman Boulder Prep -- 2018 vs 2016, as that article describes the basis for most of these estimates.  Also, this post describes my race plan.

Race Plan

Mantras / Themes

Throughout the race, my main themes will be:

• Execute the plan -- don't get caught-up in "racing" and don't let the things that go wrong (they will) get in the way of my race
• Be flexible -- be ready to improvise and/or switch from plan A, to plan B, etc
• Find and sit on my edge -- I know my body through countless hours of training; I know what my limits are and can push for long periods of time when finding that edge
• Respect my edge -- This goes to being flexible.  The edge may change from one minute or mile to another; I will be mindful and respectful of that flow

Swim

I'll plan to seed toward the front of the 1:00 to 1:10 group.  As always, I'll start easy -- focusing on establishing an easy breathing pattern.  After getting comfortable, I will raise the effort level.  My focus then will be on long, strong, efficient strokes.  After the first turn, if there are some fast feet I'll attempt to draft, but will more likely swim solo.  In the beginning, I'll site every 5-breaths, but extend that later in the swim when I know I am swimming straight.

Bike + Run

The bike & run racing plan is based on minimizing the combined bike + run splits by distributing effort optimally across both disciplines.  By knowing the correlation between pace/power/split and heart rate, I constructed a simple table that allows optimizing the heart rate between the bike and run with with constraint that the overall heart rate should not exceed 143BPM for the day.  This HR is higher than 2016 by 2BPM, but i ave been able to elevate the HR this season.  I also added 15-sec/mile due to the heat forecasted for the race.  Using Excel's solver, the following optimal pacing plans are established for the bike & run.

Bike

Traditionally, I used a very simple pacing rule I call Power-Speed Index (PSI), which establishes the appropriate power based on the speed using a fixed index.  As compared to BestBike Split's (BBS) power plan, the PSI results in a larger variation of power, which is not optimal for split time or running off the bike.  Thus, I will modify my bike pacing plan this year to use BBS's power plan, but simplified for actual intra-race use.  (BBS is great, but the power plan has 170 intervals with different power, which is not practical for use during the race).  So, I will use a plan like this (hopefully I can remember it!):

• Baseline speed & power will be 25MPH & 215Watts
• Power = (25MPH - current_speed) x 5Watts + 215Watts

In words: for each MPH below baseline, I will add 5Watts.  For example, if my current speed is 21MPH (e.g., base of Neva), the power should be (25-21)*5 + 215 = 235Watts.

This pacing plan is reasonable based on my estimated heart rate of 139BPM at baseline power.  For reference, my HR for the bike in 2016 was 139BPM.

Bike Nutrition: I'll plan to consume ~250kCal/hour of EFS drink:

• One ~600kCal bottle on the beam 
• Pickup another ~600kCal bottle at special needs.  This second bottle will also have a scoop of Pre-race in it

Run

While the run effort is established in the bike+race plan, I will actually just use the heart rate specified (148BPM) as my target, with the running watch set to alarm when I go over.  During the first 4 miles (up hill), I'll focus on hold back just a bit.  The middle 17-miles I'll just focus on maintaining the effort.  And the last 5-miles (net up hill), I will push the pace as much as I can.

Heat Management: I plan on using a DeSoto bolero for the run and keeping the arms wet to help cooling.  Additionally, I am considering running with a large-brim hat to keep the sun off my face, ears, and neck.

Run Nutrition:

• First half: Gatorade unless my stomach is upset, then water
• I'll prepare a concentrated EFS drink + Pre-race flash for run special needs.  I typically that flash available, but have rarely used it
• Second half: Coke + water

Estimated Splits

It should be noted that these estimates represent the potential performance based on training and past racing.  In 2016, I actually raced within the range of my estimated splits: the swim & bike were on the slower end and the run was on the faster end.  These estimated splits below assume I have a reasonable day and that the environment and my body cooperates with my pacing plan.

Swim

The following approaches may be used to estimate my swim split:

• Using my current 500-yd time trial compared to 2016, along with the 2016 swim split: 6:36 x 1:07:54 / 7:00 = 1:03:50
• Recent BAM Swim at the Boulder reservoir of 2.65-miles (according to my Garmin) in 1:09, which equates to a 1:02:30 swim split
• Using my recent swim performance of top 2-3% of the AG at St George and TX70.3, along with the top 3-percent of the AG @ IMB over the last two years of: 1:02:32, 0:59:55 yields a swim split of: 1:01:14

Bike

For the estimates & the pacing plan, I added 3BPM to the training data, as that was consistent with 2016's experience.  BestBikeSplit (BBS) will be used for many of the estimates below.  The day before the race (this morning), I updated the BBS's course to use Rob Gray's recorded public course. of 112.17 miles.  The following methods may be used to estimate the bike split:

• Using BBS and the planned normalized power of 222Watts results in a split of 4:24:57
• Assuming a normalized power 5% below that results in an upper estimate of 4:31:29
• My training rides have been near 22MPH.  However, these rides have been about 15-Watts below my race plan, which equates to about 0.8MPH.  Historically, I have found a 1.3MPH difference between training and racing the same course and same power.  Thus, it would be reasonable to ride at 24.1MPH for the race, which results in a split of 4:39:20

Run

While the race plan establishes the effort for the run, the main variable is the pace.  The following methods may be used to estimate the pace and run split:

• [Added day before the race] Given the forecasted temperature, it would be reasonable to add some time to the training paces.  Thus, the range of run splits should include an upper end of 15-seconds/mile slower paces.  This slowing is reflected in the predicted splits below.
• While 2017 was a bust, I still set a new run PR (1:32:29) in the Half Ironman (HIM) distance at Santa Rosa.  That run split is a reasonable representation of my 2016 Boulder run fitness.  At TX70.3 this year, I set a new HIM PR run split (1:30:38; as well as a bike power PR).  Using the aforementioned HIM run and IM-Boulder 2016 split (3:21:39), provides the first estimated split of: 1:30:38 x 3:21:39 / 1:32:29 = 3:17:37 to 3:24:10
• Using the pace and hear rate from the long runs this season, results in a pace at race effort of 7:45/mile and a split of 3:23:07 to 3:29:40
• Using the same approach, but looking at segments within those runs results in pace of 7:25/mile and split of 3:14:10 to 3:20:43

Overall

This summary rounds to the nearest 30-seconds and assumes 8-minutes for T1+T2.  Also, the run split includes the 15-sec/mile slowing due to the heat.  Thus, a sub-9-hour performance is possible, but an outside chance; my estimating skills would have to be excellent, the weather would need to cooperate, and things would need to go perfectly well on race day.

Race Goals

These goals are listed in order of personal importance.

1. Execute the best race I possibly can -- that means finding my edge all day long
2. Go "sub-9" -- based on the estimated splits, it's possible, but I'd have to have a near-perfect day
3. Win the M50-54 AG -- I feel like IM-Boulder is MY race.  It's "my home-town" and I've done it each year since inception, except 2017
4. Kona Slot -- I am ready to go back and achieve greater things in Hawaii, but -- of course -- I need to earn that right first

Risks, Concerns, and Fears

• [Added day before the race] Is the heat going to ruin my plans for the run?  I heat trained to the extent possible, but it was not as extensive as the forecast suggest might be necessary 
• First, will my run come together as it has in the HIM races this season
• The bike plan is quite conservative with regard to effort, which puts the burden on the run for a great day.  Will I be able to maintain an elevated HR on the run, as planned
• Will my stomach cooperate?
• Did I peak too close to the race?