IM Boulder 2018 Race Recap

Summary

Ironman Boulder marks the fourth time I raced the venue and my 16th Ironman start.  I achieved 3 of 4 of the goals I had set prior to the race.  But I remain hungry for and convinced I can achieve the 4th -- I still want to go sub-9.  Approaching 50-years of age, this achievement would be remarkable.  I am most proud of staying in the moment and "respecting my edge" all day long.  While the ride was the highlight of the race, I probably "over-biked", which cost me about 5-minutes overall.  Also, because I did not ride as steady as planned I left about 8-minutes on the table.  The bike was the 9th fastest overall, including the male pros.  While the run was "slow", it was still the 27th fastest run overall, including pros and nearly 20-minutes faster than the next in the age-group.

I am so thankful for the health I have that allowed me even to train.  And also thankful for the support from my fiends and family that make this all possible.

Race Prep

The full race prep is in the post.  However, to summarize:

• I first focused on Swim volume and peaked that volume New Years Day with a 10k swim.  I maintained 2-3 sessions per week with the masters group at the Y, along with 1-2 more on my own per week
• Starting in January, I then ramped the run -- both intensity and distance.  I peaked in March and maintained that level until June
• Early-season bike and run training was marked by high-intensity work every day, except the log-run day (Sunday)
• I did not start doing Ironman-specific bike sessions until ~5-weeks out of the race

Final Race Prep

With regard to final tuning prep, I used nearly every technique that I've used in the past.  It might have been too much because I felt HORRIBLE Thursday, Friday before the race, which is not a settling feeling!  Here's a recap of the techniques I used:

• Heat training -- Leading into the weather had been very mild, but I wanted to be prepared for a hot race day.  (Mother Nature did not disappoint!)  I started about 10-days out and was only able to log 3x run sessions where it was "warm" (not hot) where I was able to add additional layers and simulate high heat indices.  Regardless, I was able to elevate the sweat-rate in these sessions to where I could lose 5-pounds of water per hour.  In addition, I added NIR sauna sessions (~40-minutes @ 140*F) after normal workouts 3-5 times
• Creatinine & Ribose -- Before TX70.3 & St George, I loaded with Creatinin and Ribose.  In both of those races, I felt like a rock star.  So, I replicated the protocol, which was simply taking ~5-grams of Creatinine and ~5-grams of Ribose twice daily for 7-days before the race
• Gluten & dairy-free (mostly) week before -- Unlike 2016 where I was Paleo + gluten & dairy-free for months, I decided to cut out these substances for the week prior to IMB.  I was generally successful, but had a few breaches of small amounts.  In hindsight, I am not sure I noticed much of a difference
• Carb-restriction then reload -- This protocol is likely the source of feeling so poor the few days before the race.  I've used this technique since 2007 with good success.  It involves cutting net carbs to the lowest level possible for 5-days (Sunday through Thursday) and then carb-loading for 2-days (Friday & Saturday).  During this time, I typically lose significant weight.  This time, I went from ~162-pounds to 157-pounds
• Taper: I've been noticing a trend in races where I've done well where there is symmetry about zero of the Training Stress Balance (TSB) the day of and day after the race.  For example, for IM-Boulder I hit a TSB of about +30 the day of the race and about -30 the day after.  Of course, the individual bike & run TSB's are also symmetric about zero as well

Race Recap

Prior to the race, I published a post that included the split estimates & race plan.  That plan was revised the day before the race after conferring with Rob Gray on the strategy of pushing the bike on a hot day, knowing the run will be slower due to the heat.

Pre-race

The day before, my buddy Chris Douville so graciously offered to take me to the race in the morning.  Race morning, he picked me up at 4am and I had breakfast on the road, which consisted of: coffee + 2x almond/peanut butter & jam sandwiches on gluten-free bread + 2x bananas.  I like to finish breakfast no later than 2-hours before the race start, so I was done by 420am.

Beautiful Race Morning Sunrise 

We arrived, found parking pretty quickly, and I was able to use a secret bathroom (thanks Chris!).  After dropping the special needs bags, we were on the shuttle within minutes.  We arrived at the reservoir at 510am, 10-minutes earlier than plan.

I first got the bike all prepped and went to put the Garmin in my run bag.  However, to my dismay, the run bag was not to be found!  Wow, what a way to derail a perfectly-planned race -- NO SHOES!  After looking around a few times, I got some help.  The lead volunteer (Meg?) told me they would find it while I was out on the swim & bike.  While that was a nice gesture, I was not so willing to allow all of this prep, planning, and excitement to race to go down the drain.  I started brainstorming with Chris what we could do.  The working plan was to have Christine call my mom to get earlier child care, so Christine could come earlier than planned -- all the way to the res -- with a backup bag.  Once that plan was established, I focused on getting ready for the swim start, which was getting pretty close.

Mikhail Ivanov and Bob, ready to Race!

Swim (Estimated: 1:01 to 1:04 / Actual: 1:03:06)

As the Boulder swim was a rolling start, the large group started to form along the boat ramp.  As I was running behind a few minutes, I had to wade my way toward the front, as I had planed to seed with the 1:00-1:10 group.  However, there were probably 500+ people in front of that wave sign.  So, I edged-up to where there were ~300 people in front of me.

The cannon boomed and the herd started moving slowly to the water.  They were letting about 2-4 people go at a time and it looked pretty clear.  Once I got to the water, I quickly dove-in and started swimming.  My initial focus was on establishing a regular and relaxed breathing pattern.  Fortunately, the throttling of athletes into the water allowed me to get into a rhythm very quickly.



The plan was to swim steady along the first stretch and pick-up the pace after the first turn.  The swim was completely open, with essentially NO contact during the entire swim!  During the swim, I was in extreme passing mode.  There was one person who looked like a good draft, but they were just a bit too fast so I let them go.  Thus, I swam solo the entire time.  I probably passed 200 people during the swim, which correlates with my overall placing out of the water of 103rd (including the pros, who probably all swam faster than I).

Bike (Estimated: 4:25:00 to 4:31:30 / Actual: 4:31:59)

T1 was was uneventful and I was feeling fine getting on the bike.  However, I was completely unaware of the initial segment of the bike in the reservoir, which was like a criterium!  After getting out onto the diagonal, I was in beast mode.  I had my power plan, but I also had the confidence of great bike strength.  I wanted to get to the front of the field quickly so I could just focus on my pace.  After making the initial turn-around @ 55th, I settled into the power/speed plan.  However, I noticed that my heart rate was elevated by a good 5-10BPM.  I stuck to the power plan, which was easy riding northbound.  After making the turn-around at Airport and hitting mile 10, I passed the my first female pro.  As I made my way up Neva, I was trying to pace myself to the plan, but was distracted by my elevated HR.  I decided to stick with the plan, which was based on power and ignore HR.  I figured it would settle on the Nelson descent.  In training, my HR would drop to ~120 on the descents, but on race day, it remained near ~130+.  Regardless, I decided to stick with the power/speed plan.

I was riding as planned, taking in calories and water on the descents.  At the bottom of Hygiene, I saw Rob Gray near the turn-around and he offered me some good encouragement.  After accumulating enough fluids, I was able to pee @ mile 50.  Most of us know that it's critical to be able to pee on the bike at least once.  This was an early pee, so I knew I needed to stay on top of the hydration.  This high sweat rate is evident on my tri-suit in the image below.

Riding to Plan near Mile-50 (or 110)

During the first loop, I was picking off riders and the field was getting pretty thin.  As I got to the 63rd turn, the road was taped with three options.  Really?!  I need to be able to be lucid and make good decisions during the Ironman!?  The section of the course here was definitely a bit confusing and I suspect a lot of people made the wrong, early turn onto 63rd.  Fortunately, I made the correct choice and continued on, south toward 55th for another loop on Diagonal.  As I started started the second loop, I allowed myself to calm a bit more, in fact allowing the watts to drop a bit.  This was not fatigue, but rather a conscious decision to ride a little more conservatively knowing I had pushed pretty hard on the first loop.  In hindsight, I really did ride the bike based on feel and sort of "consulted" the power meter, rather than racing per the plan.

During the second descent on Nelson I came upon a rider in a familiar-looking kit.  It was Silvio Guerra!  I could not understand how I was passing Silvio at this point.  I figured he must have run into a problem during the swim (panic attack) or the bike (serious mechanical) and he was on his first loop.  I learned later that Silvio was one of the poor folks who made that early turn at the confusing section at 63rd.  (After realizing the error, he completed the missing section after his second loop, but was unfortunately disqualified after finishing the entire race.) 

The Friendly Rivals: Silvio Silvio Guerra & Bob McRae

The heat was rising as the day progressed.  Also, the wind picked-up noticeably on the second loop.  And, it was a sort of cruel wind -- hot and in your face during the climbs up St Vrain and Hygiene roads.  I stayed aero as much as I could, knowing that this weather presented an opportunity to net a faster time.  (It's faster to have a headwind on the uphill and tailwind on the faster descent.)

Bike Pacing

As is said, "hindsight is 20-20".  However, after doing enough postmortems, hopefully some learning occurs!  The chart above shows in red the power plan, which was based on BestBikeSplit's 200+ intervals for the race.  I simplified that power plan to be usable during the race.  The blue is my actual power.  In purple is the accumulated difference in Watts, which should be a flat line about zero -- indicating a well executed plan.  One can appreciate the larger variation in power between the plan (red) and the actual (blue) power.  Upon closer inspection, it looks like most of that variation is below the red line, which is time riding below the plan, likely at higher speeds.

Overall, my normalized power was 225Watts, which was slightly above my plan of 222Watts.  The first loop was 216/232 (AVG/NP) and second 194/216 (AVG/NP).  What is remarkable is that the second loop was only 0.1MPH slower, yet 16-20-Watts lower in power.  For the normalized power of 225Watts, I was ~8-minutes slower than predicted.  While perhaps a minute of this time may be explained by the slower segment at the start, I suspect most of that time (~7-minutes) was because the average power was lower than BBS's power plan would suggest for a 225-Watt NP.  Had I done a better job at sticking to the power plan, and holding a more constant power I could have ridden another 7-8 minutes faster with the same normalized power.

Bike Nutrition

Bike nutrition has become increasingly simple.  I started with a 600kCal bottle of EFS drink (carbs + Amino Acids) on the beam.  I finished that bottle by the time I hit special needs and exchanged for an identical bottle, but with 1-scoop of Pre-race.  I finished that second bottle by the end of the bike.  Thus, that is 1200kCal on the bike, or 267kCal/Hr.  My stomach was fine during the entire ride and never did I feel bloated; in fact, I felt slightly hungry during the ride.

Run (Estimated: 3:20:30 to 3:29:30 / Actual: 3:34:43)

Coming off the bike, my combined swim & bike put me in second place overall (among the AG finishers), with only the eventual race winner leading me.  Later, I learned that I started the run with a 34-minute lead on the second place of the age group.  As I rolled into T2, Chris made me aware that they found my bag.  Actually, I don't remember even thinking about that risk during the swim or bike.

The run bag requires special discussion...I later learned that my run bag was actually just buried under several other run bags!  It was there the whole time!  Even after I looked twice and the lead volunteer looked twice, we did not see it.  So, lesson learned: pick-up other bags until you see yours or the ground!  I also learned later, that Chris had actually made a round-trip from the reservoir, via bus to downtown, back to Arvada then back again to make me a replacement run bag filled with run shoes, sock options, run nutrition -- made from prior photos...What an incredible friend and incredible support!  Thank you so much Chris!

Chris' replacement run bag

T2 was quick and uneventful.  I donned my DeSoto bolero and headed out for some hot marathon fun!  At the very first aid station, I was offered a nice, cool, wet washcloth, which I used to clean my face.  As I started to throw it away, I realized I could use this valuable piece of cloth.  I had the very fortunate thought to put the washcloth on my head and then pull the visor down over it.  From this point forward, my ears were protected and my head remained cool & wet!  This technique will be a staple going forward!

I knew it was going to be a hot and long rest of the race, so I focused on the plan, which was to settle into a comfortable pace -- respecting my HR limit of 150BPM set on my watch.  I passed a guy (probably an age-grouper by mile-1).  At mile 2-3 I saw Kevin Konczak, who beat me in 2015 and I met the first time.  In retrospect, I was amazed that I recognized him given the circumstances.  I said hi and re-introduced myself.  He ran along and took some photos.  Thanks Kevin!  Around mile-4, I was informed I was the 4th age-grouper to pass.

I felt really relaxed and NOT hot for first 6-8 miles.  I walked each aid station, dumping water over my head and ice down the back.  The bolero was working very well keeping my arms protected from the extreme exposure (direct sun + 9% humidity + altitude) and cool with the evaporating water.

While not so fashionable, the bolero and washcloth were invaluable on the run

Right around mile-9, I saw the family the first time at Scott Carpenter Park.  Christine, Ariel, Geneva and Kendall were at that section with the signs they all made (thanks Geneva!)  A bit later, I saw my sister Brenda, Dave, and Amanda.

Signs of encouragement

Right around this time it started to get hard, which correlated with the (first) need of a porta-potty break.  Somewhere around that time I saw Rob Gray again.  He informed me of my huge lead and that the only consideration was my goal time.  Regardless, I stuck with the plan, which was to find, push, and respect my edge.  During my first porta-potty break, I was passed by an EMJ guy, which put me in 5th place on the course.  Then, near mile 13, came Juan Valencia, "the Columbian" as I call him.  I knew Juan was racing again this year.  I recognized him from 2016 and he stood out to me with his incredible ability to hurt.  In 2016, he was a few minutes ahead of me, so I could see him on the turn-arounds.  Every time I saw him, he was suffering badly, but maintaining his lead on me.  This time, I had passed him on the bike, but he caught me here on the run.  I heard him coming up on me and I could hear the suffering.  All I said was, "Columbia?".  His responded in the affirmative and I told him how I admired his ability to hurt.  He shook my hand and he made the pass.  (I later learned that he raced IMTX in 8:27 and won his AG there!)

Somewhere between mile-9 and 16 or so, I had to make another porta-potty break.  My stomach was OK, but my lower GI tract was filled with water.  I have to figure this part of racing hot Ironman's out!

Chris was on his mountain bike and was encouraging me during most of this second loop, which felt incredible hard.  I felt like I was slogging along at a 9-minute pace.  Actually, though, I was running reasonably well considering the earlier effort and the conditions.  I later learned that my run split was the fastest among the AG finishers (Silvio still beat me by 17-minutes!) and nearly 20-minutes faster than the next fastest in the AG.  Chris kept encouraging me along the way.   At mile 24.5, he said, "just one and a half miles to go!"  Unfortunately, that was one of the longest 1.5-miles I have ever run.  The uphill grade to the turn-around seemed to take FOREVER!  However, I was able to pass a different EMJ guy near mile 25.  The downhill section after the turn-around did not offer as much relief as I was hoping.  However, at that point I knew I was moments away from one of my favorite parts of life -- running down the finishing chute of an Ironman.

As I entered the finishing chute, I heard Mike Reilly call, "Bob McRae!  Dominating the age group!  You Are An IRONMAN!!!"

You Are An IRONMAN!!!

Run Pacing

The plan was to hold a constant HR of 148BPM.  However, due to the heat and the elevated HR on the bike, that was not possible.  Sure, I could have pushed momentarily, but I could not have sustained the planned effort.  The run may be best split by the following segments, which is based on my stable HR:

• Miles 0-10: 
• Average HR=147BPM (near plan)
• Pace: 7:45/mile (just 5-sec/mile below plan)
• Miles 10-14 (after first porta-potty break):
• Average HR=142BPM (6BPM below plan)
• Pace: 7:48/mile (8-sec/mile below plan)
• Miles 14-finish (after second porta-potty break):
• Average HR=138BPM (10BPM below plan)
• Pace: 8:09/mile (39-sec/mile below plan)

Run Pacing

Run Nutrition: Water & Gatorade through mile-13; then coke.

Race Execution Postmortem

When looking at the bike & run combined, I was able to hit an average HR of 141.7BPM, which was just shy of the estimate of 143BPM.  My prior understanding that overall race HR is my race limiter I was reinforced because I ran to the best of my ability after a big cardiovascular effort on the bike.  As previously noted, my HR was elevated on bike, which resulted in an inability to hit the target HR on the run.  So, relative to my plan, I "over-biked" the race.  The analysis below shows the effect of over-biking had on the overall race time.

Planned, Actual, and Optimized Race Pacing

Several notes/observations may be made from this analysis:

• HR was elevated on the bike -- likely due to the heat, which resulted in 3-watts lower than the estimate
• The bike split was ~9-minutes slower than the estimate -- mostly probably due to riding with more "uneven", with a higher normalized power as compared to the average power
• The run was ~18-seconds/mile slower than training runs, which was close to my original estimate of 15-sec/mile
• Over-biking resulted in a ~5-min gain on the bike, but a ~10-min slower run (ignoring the porta-potty breaks).  So, while I had been admonishing myself for "pushing the bike", the net difference was only ~5-minutes

Race Goals

Prior to the race, I had set the following goals in order of personal importance.

1. Execute the best race I possibly can -- that means finding my edge all day long.  While this is highly subjective, I feel that I accomplished this goal perfectly.  Several times during the run, I pushed up against my "edge" and was able to maintain the effort there for long periods of time.  At no point did I let up from that edge
2. Go "sub-9" -- based on the estimated splits, it was possible, but the day had to have been perfect.  In retrospect, I left about ~10-minutes on the table due to less-than-optimal pacing.  Even with optimal pacing, I would have been still 7-minutes shy of 9-hours.  However, the race conditions were not conducive to a sub-9 race -- it was windy on the bike and hot on the run.  As an example, Juan Valencia did 8:27 @ IMTX, but 9:10 @ IMB.  Also, looking at six racers' run splits at other, recent races they ran 12% faster than at IMB.  For me, that would result in ~22-minutes on the run, which would put me well under the 9-hour mark
3. Win the M50-54 AG -- Considering I won by ~50-minutes, this goal was well-met
4. Kona Slot -- I had a great day and was able to secure a spot to the "big dance"

Mantras / Themes

Before the race, I established the following mantras/themes:

• Execute the plan -- I did allow my HR to remain elevated on the bike, but I wanted to experiment at bit.  The net affect of this decision was to show that over-biking does result in a slower time, but not a substantially slower one
• Be flexible -- Allowing my HR to elevate on the bike was "plan B".  Also, I did not panic about the missing run bag and it not distract me from executing my swim and bike
• Find and sit on my edge & respect my edge -- These two separate mantras became one.  I found and respected the edge ALL DAY long

Tags

Rob Gray, Chris Douville, Betty Donovan, Christine Ventura, Silvio Gurrera, Kevin Konczak, Geneva Douville, Brenda Freeman, Dave Freeman, Amanda Freeman

Ironman Boulder Race Plan & Estimates

Summary

I am writing this post to help solidify my confidence of my potential to perform at Ironman Boulder, 2018.  This is a companion post to the more extensive, Ironman Boulder Prep -- 2018 vs 2016, as that article describes the basis for most of these estimates.  Also, this post describes my race plan.

Race Plan

Mantras / Themes

Throughout the race, my main themes will be:

• Execute the plan -- don't get caught-up in "racing" and don't let the things that go wrong (they will) get in the way of my race
• Be flexible -- be ready to improvise and/or switch from plan A, to plan B, etc
• Find and sit on my edge -- I know my body through countless hours of training; I know what my limits are and can push for long periods of time when finding that edge
• Respect my edge -- This goes to being flexible.  The edge may change from one minute or mile to another; I will be mindful and respectful of that flow

Swim

I'll plan to seed toward the front of the 1:00 to 1:10 group.  As always, I'll start easy -- focusing on establishing an easy breathing pattern.  After getting comfortable, I will raise the effort level.  My focus then will be on long, strong, efficient strokes.  After the first turn, if there are some fast feet I'll attempt to draft, but will more likely swim solo.  In the beginning, I'll site every 5-breaths, but extend that later in the swim when I know I am swimming straight.

Bike + Run

The bike & run racing plan is based on minimizing the combined bike + run splits by distributing effort optimally across both disciplines.  By knowing the correlation between pace/power/split and heart rate, I constructed a simple table that allows optimizing the heart rate between the bike and run with with constraint that the overall heart rate should not exceed 143BPM for the day.  This HR is higher than 2016 by 2BPM, but i ave been able to elevate the HR this season.  I also added 15-sec/mile due to the heat forecasted for the race.  Using Excel's solver, the following optimal pacing plans are established for the bike & run.

Bike

Traditionally, I used a very simple pacing rule I call Power-Speed Index (PSI), which establishes the appropriate power based on the speed using a fixed index.  As compared to BestBike Split's (BBS) power plan, the PSI results in a larger variation of power, which is not optimal for split time or running off the bike.  Thus, I will modify my bike pacing plan this year to use BBS's power plan, but simplified for actual intra-race use.  (BBS is great, but the power plan has 170 intervals with different power, which is not practical for use during the race).  So, I will use a plan like this (hopefully I can remember it!):

• Baseline speed & power will be 25MPH & 215Watts
• Power = (25MPH - current_speed) x 5Watts + 215Watts

In words: for each MPH below baseline, I will add 5Watts.  For example, if my current speed is 21MPH (e.g., base of Neva), the power should be (25-21)*5 + 215 = 235Watts.

This pacing plan is reasonable based on my estimated heart rate of 139BPM at baseline power.  For reference, my HR for the bike in 2016 was 139BPM.

Bike Nutrition: I'll plan to consume ~250kCal/hour of EFS drink:

• One ~600kCal bottle on the beam 
• Pickup another ~600kCal bottle at special needs.  This second bottle will also have a scoop of Pre-race in it

Run

While the run effort is established in the bike+race plan, I will actually just use the heart rate specified (148BPM) as my target, with the running watch set to alarm when I go over.  During the first 4 miles (up hill), I'll focus on hold back just a bit.  The middle 17-miles I'll just focus on maintaining the effort.  And the last 5-miles (net up hill), I will push the pace as much as I can.

Heat Management: I plan on using a DeSoto bolero for the run and keeping the arms wet to help cooling.  Additionally, I am considering running with a large-brim hat to keep the sun off my face, ears, and neck.

Run Nutrition:

• First half: Gatorade unless my stomach is upset, then water
• I'll prepare a concentrated EFS drink + Pre-race flash for run special needs.  I typically that flash available, but have rarely used it
• Second half: Coke + water

Estimated Splits

It should be noted that these estimates represent the potential performance based on training and past racing.  In 2016, I actually raced within the range of my estimated splits: the swim & bike were on the slower end and the run was on the faster end.  These estimated splits below assume I have a reasonable day and that the environment and my body cooperates with my pacing plan.

Swim

The following approaches may be used to estimate my swim split:

• Using my current 500-yd time trial compared to 2016, along with the 2016 swim split: 6:36 x 1:07:54 / 7:00 = 1:03:50
• Recent BAM Swim at the Boulder reservoir of 2.65-miles (according to my Garmin) in 1:09, which equates to a 1:02:30 swim split
• Using my recent swim performance of top 2-3% of the AG at St George and TX70.3, along with the top 3-percent of the AG @ IMB over the last two years of: 1:02:32, 0:59:55 yields a swim split of: 1:01:14

Bike

For the estimates & the pacing plan, I added 3BPM to the training data, as that was consistent with 2016's experience.  BestBikeSplit (BBS) will be used for many of the estimates below.  The day before the race (this morning), I updated the BBS's course to use Rob Gray's recorded public course. of 112.17 miles.  The following methods may be used to estimate the bike split:

• Using BBS and the planned normalized power of 222Watts results in a split of 4:24:57
• Assuming a normalized power 5% below that results in an upper estimate of 4:31:29
• My training rides have been near 22MPH.  However, these rides have been about 15-Watts below my race plan, which equates to about 0.8MPH.  Historically, I have found a 1.3MPH difference between training and racing the same course and same power.  Thus, it would be reasonable to ride at 24.1MPH for the race, which results in a split of 4:39:20

Run

While the race plan establishes the effort for the run, the main variable is the pace.  The following methods may be used to estimate the pace and run split:

• [Added day before the race] Given the forecasted temperature, it would be reasonable to add some time to the training paces.  Thus, the range of run splits should include an upper end of 15-seconds/mile slower paces.  This slowing is reflected in the predicted splits below.
• While 2017 was a bust, I still set a new run PR (1:32:29) in the Half Ironman (HIM) distance at Santa Rosa.  That run split is a reasonable representation of my 2016 Boulder run fitness.  At TX70.3 this year, I set a new HIM PR run split (1:30:38; as well as a bike power PR).  Using the aforementioned HIM run and IM-Boulder 2016 split (3:21:39), provides the first estimated split of: 1:30:38 x 3:21:39 / 1:32:29 = 3:17:37 to 3:24:10
• Using the pace and hear rate from the long runs this season, results in a pace at race effort of 7:45/mile and a split of 3:23:07 to 3:29:40
• Using the same approach, but looking at segments within those runs results in pace of 7:25/mile and split of 3:14:10 to 3:20:43

Overall

This summary rounds to the nearest 30-seconds and assumes 8-minutes for T1+T2.  Also, the run split includes the 15-sec/mile slowing due to the heat.  Thus, a sub-9-hour performance is possible, but an outside chance; my estimating skills would have to be excellent, the weather would need to cooperate, and things would need to go perfectly well on race day.

Race Goals

These goals are listed in order of personal importance.

1. Execute the best race I possibly can -- that means finding my edge all day long
2. Go "sub-9" -- based on the estimated splits, it's possible, but I'd have to have a near-perfect day
3. Win the M50-54 AG -- I feel like IM-Boulder is MY race.  It's "my home-town" and I've done it each year since inception, except 2017
4. Kona Slot -- I am ready to go back and achieve greater things in Hawaii, but -- of course -- I need to earn that right first

Risks, Concerns, and Fears

• [Added day before the race] Is the heat going to ruin my plans for the run?  I heat trained to the extent possible, but it was not as extensive as the forecast suggest might be necessary 
• First, will my run come together as it has in the HIM races this season
• The bike plan is quite conservative with regard to effort, which puts the burden on the run for a great day.  Will I be able to maintain an elevated HR on the run, as planned
• Will my stomach cooperate?
• Did I peak too close to the race?

Ironman Boulder Prep -- 2016 vs 2018

Summary

I am writing this summary to provide a comparison between two seasons to help understand the foundation of performance, which is health, training, and general preparation.  There is good deal of similarity between the two seasons, but also some enhancements preparing for Ironman Boulder this year.  For example,

• Going into Boulder, 2016 I had three months of reasonable heath upon which I was able to add training.  Coming into Boulder this year I have a full five months of solid training and health
• I am currently about 8-pounds heavier than in 2016; extra weight is gained muscle mass, which has manifested in more swim speed and bike power
• I am now swimming in the top 3-percentile of the age-group, versus 20-percentile in 2016, which means about a 5+ minute faster swim split
• I was still able to accumulate a greater bike training load as compared to 2016
• Also, at the same effort level, I am producing ~12 more Watts as compared to 2016, with equates to about 7-minute faster bike split
• My running base is "deeper" now as compared to 2016
• In 2018, to enhance late-race fitness, I included 3-4 big acute training blocks of 3-days vs only one in 2016
• My swim, bike, and run performance during Half Ironman races in 2018 is showing significant improvement over 2016

General Health

Early-2016 was when I started noticing something was wrong with my health and engaged NourishBalanceThrive for help.  We started to peel the onion, discovering and addressing layers of issues.  May-2016 was when I started to regain some footing on my health.  Part of the intervention involved going gluten & dairy free and doing Whole30.  By June, I felt like things were moving in the right direction and my training & race performance reflected that.  Thus, going into IM-Boulder, I had three months of training on reasonable health.  Attempting to train while ill is like over-stuffing a bag -- things will overflow and the bag will burst.

In 2017, I had to completely pull the plug from training and racing; my training and racing was just not progressing well.  I went back to the Lyme doc that was treating me in 2012 and we discovered I still had two co-infections, which were likely the cause of the issues going back to 2016.  After the first 3-month treatment protocol, the more dominant of the co-infections, Babesia, had been beaten back.  The next three months killed the second, Bartonella.  Also during this time, we discovered the crawlspace in our house had three mold species that were at extremely elevated levels, which were surely not helping matters.  So, we engaged an incredible local firm to mitigate the mold, which was present throughout the house.

Toward the end of 2017, I started to feel like I could slowly resume training.  I was sleeping better, and able to add a progressively greater training load.  I started with the swim, then resumed running -- after having completely stopped running for three months.  By the end of January, I had established a training load greater than all prior seasons.  Without good health, that is not possible.  Since then, I have been able to add both intensity and volume.  Thus, coming into IM-Boulder, 2018 I have a full five months of solid training and health.  Different from 2016, my diet is far more "relaxed" now; I am enjoying my burritos and burgers, and cocktails on occasion.  I am currently about 8-pounds heavier than in 2016.  One might think that the different diet could be to blame, but I am at least as lean as 2016, which means the extra weight is gained muscle mass, which has manifested in more swim speed and bike power.

Nutritional Prep

While my diet has been far more relaxed in 2018, I have still maintained regular & frequent carb-fasted and/or cab-restricted training sessions with no carbs since the night before, including:

• a few 18-20 mile morning runs
• nearly every Monday morning swim/spin session (~2-hours)
• nearly every Wednesday swim/torque-interval session (~2.5-hours)
• each of the longer brick days, including the 100-mile ride + 5-mile run on 250kCal or carbs

So, I am perhaps even more nutritionally prepared to burn fat as compared to 2016.

Mental Training

A month prior to Kona, 2016 I started meditating with Muse.  As I note in the Kona race recap, I did not appreciate the benefits until in the midst of the race, which was perfect!  However, as I did not start this practice until later in the year, I did not have the benefit of this mental training going into Boulder-2016.  I have noticed this year that tap into the regular, relaxed breathing technique practiced during meditating during threshold interval sessions.  While I have not maintained a regular practice of meditating, I had resumed a few weeks ago.  I suspect this "refresher" may come to my aid on race day this year.  

Swim

Similar to 2016, I established a big swim block in the winter, which culminated with a 10k swim on New Years Day, 2018.  Different from 2016, I have been swimming with the "masters group" at the Y, which has surely helped my technique and speed.  I started 2016 with a 500yd time-trial time of ~7:00.  This year, I was able to reduce that time to 6:36, which represents about a 6% improvement in speed.  This improvement in swim fitness has translated into the races as well, where I am now swimming in the top 3-percentile of the age-group, versus 20-percentile in 2016.  What this means at the Ironman distance is about 5-minutes improvement in the swim.

Bike

In general, the bike training between the two seasons has been very similar.  What's new in 2018 is that I am teaching spin class twice a week now.  What that means is I am teaching a high-intensity spin class the day after my long run.  It's been tough, but I think it's helped build more bike strength.  I have also transitioned my torque intervals from a solo activity to a spin class.  I have enjoyed helping other folks get stronger too!

What is different this year is that the early season (February - April) were solely intensity focused.  Every single bike session was intensity based, including:

• Monday: 1-hour spin (IF ~ 0.90)
• Wednesday: 1-hr VO2max intervals (IF ~ 1.00)
• Friday: 1-hr Threshold Intervals (IF ~ 0.90)
• Saturday: 90-min Torque Intervals (IF ~ 0.90, but at 60RPM)

It's likely a small impact, but worth mentioning, that I started using my first road bike outfitted with PowerCranks for my sessions at home.  I was surprised at how quickly I was able to adapt to this setup and am confident it has made my pedal stroke more efficient and strong.

Also different from 2016 is that I deferred the longer bike sessions until just 6-weeks prior to IM-Boulder, where in 2018 I started 9-weeks out.  While the longer-bike phase was shortened, the number of longer rides was just one fewer than 2016 (6 vs 7).

Additionally, while I tried to keep the torque intervals throughout the season in 2016, there were only two such sessions in the day before the long rides.  However, in 2018 I have been able to do 5x torque interval sessions the day before the long rides.  These back-to-back sessions surely accumulate to additional bike strength, especially in long-course racing.

While the long ride phase was shortened, I was still able to accumulate a greater bike training load as compared to 2016.  The bike Performance Management Curve (PMC) shows I hit a peak bike bCTL of 72 (~81 in TrainingPeaks) in 2018 vs 64 (~72 in TP) in 2016.

What is also different about 2018 is more bike power at the same heart rate (HR).  That difference is clearly seen in the chart below.  For example, at 135BPM I produce 220Watts vs 208Watts (NP), in 2018 vs 2016.  To put this into Ironman bike split perspective, this 12 additional watts result in a 7-minute faster bike split on the IM-Boulder 2018 course for the same level of effort. 

Run

I ramped the running volume pretty quickly in early 2018, which allowed me to achieve and maintain a peak load for a full 12-weeks prior to IM-Boulder.  That is, I did not need to "cram" the run volume in to prep for the race this year.  In 2016, I ramped more slowly and only held the peak load for 4-weeks prior to IM-Boulder.  I think that the longer training load base will result in more robust legs for the run this year.  Also, as a result of the faster ramp I was able to get in 6x 20+ mile runs in 2018 vs 4x in 2016.

While my running base is "deeper" now as compared to 2016, I don't feel as confident in my run training as I did at this time in 2016.  I have been more fatigued for many of the longer runs, and as a result, the heart rate and pace has been depressed.  Also, the pace is about 10-seconds per mile slower at the same heart rate in training as compared to 2016.  That said, my race performance this year has surely surpassed that of 2016, including the run (see below).

Bigger Days

While IM-Boulder 2016 was a HUGE breakthrough and a near-perfect race, I still faded on the last 6-miles of the run (I slowed to an 8:22/mile pace vs 7:37/mile on the ascent).  The limit I faced was general, central fatigue.  In order to stave off that slowing, I decided to build a training plan that involved longer days than I had in 2016.  These longer days took a few different forms, including adding a run at the end of the longer bike sessions -- something I did not do in 2016.  Also, I ended up including a longer ride than I had done in 2016 -- a single 110-mile ride.  I also did a moderately "big day", where I swam 4km, rode 80-miles, then did a 1-hour heat training run later in the afternoon.  Lastly, I extended my long run to a single 22-mile run.  These various sessions resulted in a higher acute training load, which may be seen in the image below.


This graph shows the rolling, cumulative 3-day Training Stress Score (TSS) for the 90-day period preceding the race.  I chose 3-days because I have found that whatever I can do in 3-days of training, I can do in a single-day of racing.  The farthest-right blue point for 2016, was IM-Boulder, which was a TSS of 690.  In 2016, I achieved a TSS > 690 only once at about 6-weeks out of the race.  In 2018, I have achieved a TSS > 690 4 times, including in the last two and three weeks.  I believe these higher acute training loads, closer to the race will leave me fresher toward the end of the long day.

Heat Training

In 2016, I completed 8x heat training sessions.  This year, heat training has been challenging because it's been so mild.  Nonetheless, I have been able to log 4-5 sessions so far, including some infrared sauna time.  With a few more days remaining before I need to remove all stress, I should still be able to get some good heat exposure.

Race Performance

In 2016, I had a great race at Ocala in March, where I recorded a personal best (PB) half-IM (HIM) power on the bike.  I raced next at St George in May, where I placed 20th in my age-group, which was the best I had placed previously at that venue -- another PB.  Then, in June I won my age group at Boulder HIM (a first) by 7-minutes, with a solid run.  All signs were looking positive for IM-Boulder.

So far in 2018, I had a fair race at Ocala, where I went in quite fatigued from training.  The next weekend, I won my AG at TX70.3 by 8-minutes with a huge PB in the swim time & placing, bike power -- 10-Watts higher than in Ocala, 2016 -- and PB in the run split.  Five weeks later, I set a huge PB at St George, placing 2nd in my AG -- cutting 27-minutes off my prior time, with another PB bike power and run split on that course.  In short, my swim, bike, and run performance in 2018 is showing significant improvement over 2016.

Summary

As compared to 2016, I am swimming faster in the pool and riding with more power.  Also, I have established a higher training load for biking, and held my running base for 12-weeks.  Early season was marked with a higher level of intensity and I deferred the long bike sessions, allowing me to peak closer to the race.  I have also established some bigger days as compared to 2016.  Race performances indicate that there is even greater potential for IM-Boulder as compared to 2016.