Florida 70.3 Race Plan & Forecast

Background

I write these race recaps, as they last longer than my memory and they help me get into  level of detail necessary to reflect the important aspects of the training and eventual execution of racing.  I think it's this detail that results in more effective learning -- and, faster racing.

The other reason I write these recaps, including time forecasts, is to help me believe what I am capable of.  Greatness must be preceded by belief.

Health

I should start with health, as it's the foundation of training performance, which directly affects racing potential.  In the last few months, I performed some functional blood testing and then later some stool testing based on some anomalies in the blood work.  The bloodwork showed a marked rise in my hemoglobin as compared to testing last fall.  When reviewing the test results with Chris Kelly (my "health coach", nourishbalancethrive.com) he keyed in on that marker quickly and understood the implications in endurance sport (he's an elite-level mountain bike racer).  He indicated that such a rise in hemoglobin could result in perhaps 10-15 additional Watts on the bike at threshold.  For me, that represents an increase of around 5%; translated into time, it means likely a 6 minute faster bike split in an Ironman.  At the time of the consult with Chris, I was focusing on running and HAD noticed that for a given effort (heart rate), my paces were some 20-seconds (~4%) faster per mile than last year.  It's hard to know what caused such a rise in my hemoglobin, but it could simply be a matter of improving my health over the last year under the guidance of Chris & team.  During that consult, Chris also keyed-in on some other markers that suggested a stool test was in order.  The results of that testing was really surprising, as they showed I had giardia!  It was surprising because I was not experiencing any of the nasty GI symptoms associated with that pathogen.  However, my lab tests DID correlate with my daughter's symptoms.  I remain amazed at how valuable the services Chris provides to both my family and me.

The only health-related issue I've faced (and is currently still with me) is some right hip facial adhesions and surrounding muscle soreness.  That injury has yet to impair my training, but surely it's been uncomfortable.  The trigger of this injury was likely the run volume ramp from 40 to 80 miles per week over a three week period in March this year.

On whole, in the last several months I have remained healthy and my training is surely benefited from that health.  With regard to training, I think of health as the vessel that one fills with work; the better the health, the more training one can absorb. 

Functional Strength

Other than a run volume build of 3-4 weeks, I've been diligent with a single strength session per week.  While the frequency has been modest and the weights light, I am convinced of the value.  I am sure they helped me reach new training heights with my running while remaining relatively injury free.

Swimming

Compared to last year (and history), I've implemented one important change in my swimming.  That is, I started swimming with the masters folks 2-3 times per week.  This change has been awesome, as I have had the opportunity to meet some really cool and capable folks, who push me in the water more than I would otherwise on my own.  It's also provided me with a great deal of confidence, as I have been able to benchmark myself against solid swimmers.  Surprisingly, I'm probably a middle-of-the-pack masters swimmer now!  I'm not sure if it's the quality of the workouts, the competitive environment, or the hemoglobin, but my swimming is also at new heights, as marked by achieving a 100yd PR in the Duncan 25yd pool of 1:09 at the end of 3000yd masters workout.  I suspect my swim splits this season will be in the 5th percentile of my age group.

Based on my current swimming performance my predicted swim split at FL70.3 is somewhere around 30:23, which is the 5th percentile of the AG from 2016.

Biking

While I did start teaching spin class 2x per week, as compared to last year, I have not changed much.  I did start biking a bit early in the year (January), but I'm probably biking one fewer session per week.  My typical schedule looks like this currently:

Monday: 1-hr hard spin

Wednesday: VO2max intervals

Friday: 1-hr HIM/tempo ride

Saturday: 1:50 torque-intervals (hard)

After my lab review session with Chris, I was eager to test my legs on the Computrainer.  However, it would be several more weeks before I had a staple workout that I could compare to last year.  Specifically, my first VO2max workout was the first opportunity to test my fitness.  Instead of using the standard workout of  8x3-min @ 300 Watts, I decided to test Chris' estimate of 15 more Watts at threshold.  So, I endeavored to increase the power from last year by 5%.  Surprisingly, it was totally doable.  So, the running & swimming performance was now clearly evident on the bike as well!

When does that happen, when performance in all three sports rises MARKEDLY?  Somewhat of a rhetorical question...that happens when you're healthy!

The chart below shows the large vertical offset in power vs heart rate as compared to last year, and to 2008 -- eight years ago and at seas level!  Based my higher threshold and HIM races last year, I now expect my HIM power to be in the range of 240-250 Watts.

    

Using 245 Watts and Best Bike Split, I estimated the FL70.3 bike split to be 2:15:36. 

Bike plan

I will use my standard Power Speed Index (PSI) approach, with a fixed index of 49 (a new high for sure).  I'll cap the power at 315 Watts.  For example, if I am traveling at 23 MPH, my power should be 260 Watts; if 28 MPH, I'll dial it down a bit to 210 Watts.

Running

My general objectives for 2017 are to improve my running and swimming performance, especially in the HIM distance.  As a result, running is where I focused in the early part of the year.  Starting in Early December, 2016 I started running slowly and ramping volume modestly.  At the end of March, I had accumulated a good 4 months of Maffatone running, achieving a "Maff" (all day / double marathon) pace between 7:20-7:40 (on the treadmill).  That last point is important; my running has been almost exclusively on the treadmill.  Now, I did calibrate my footpod with GPS twice during that period.  I peaked in March with 3-week block of 205-miles, with the last week being 80-miles.  In the last 4-weeks, I have added some intensity to my weekly volume, which has come down substantially from the 80 miles per week level; I am likely running about 25-35 miles per week currently.  Based on some longer intervals (2-3 miles) and some really cool work with R and Golden Cheetah, I can now see my running regression line, with an example run shown below.   Prepping for Ironman Boulder last year, I found such an analysis to be extremely predictive of my racing run splits.  In fact, my IM Boulder run split was within the predicted range (on the fastest end) of my forecasts.  What is also interesting about this particular chart is the inflection point that occurs near 150 beats per minute.  While I think this is a low heart rate for threshold, it might be a reasonable predictor of that metric (running LT).  What's interesting about this idea is that I could -- theoretically -- perform an LT test a few times per week without having to actually kill myself to perform that arduous test.  More on that in another post.

Based on my running regression line, my predicted HIM Pace should be near ~6:45/mile (at altitude).  Estimating somewhat conservatively, that would put the run split at a 1:28:25.  That run split would represent a pretty large run PR, which I think is near 1:34.

Run Plan

Run based on feel, holding a target HR of 155 BPM.

General

Applied to most of my early-season training, I have done a LOT of fasted workouts, including 45-min swim + 1:50 Torque-intervals and up to 15+ mile runs.  Clearly, with the Maffatone running, this strategy should result in the ability to lighten-up on the caloric load during the race, which proved successful at IM Boulder last year.

One metric that's pointing in the wrong direction for optimal race performance is my weight; I am nearly 15-pounds over race weight currently (165 vs 150)!  We'll see how that plays out on the run!

Race Forecast

Based on the previous estimated splits, the following table summarizes the race predicted splits.  This overall time last year would result in win of the age group by about 12-minutes, with a top-10 overall.  Based on how I have been feeling, I think there is some upside to these estimates with a potential for a top 3 overall.

	Pace/Power	Split
Swim		0:30:23
Bike	245Watts	2:15:36
Run	0:06:45	1:28:25
T1+T2		0:05:01
Total		4:19:26

Risk Factors

No estimate is complete without a disclaimer!  The top two now include:

• Treadmill running speed is inaccurate or not reproducible outdoors -- I have had a handful of outdoor runs this year and basically each one was horrible for one reason or the other.  Hopefully Sunday will break that trend!
• Not able to elevate HR -- The early part of this season has been pretty easy, with the bulk of my training at low intensity.  Hopefully that results in freshness on Sunday, rather than a shock.