Florida 70.3 Race Plan & Forecast

Background

I write these race recaps, as they last longer than my memory and they help me get into  level of detail necessary to reflect the important aspects of the training and eventual execution of racing.  I think it's this detail that results in more effective learning -- and, faster racing.

The other reason I write these recaps, including time forecasts, is to help me believe what I am capable of.  Greatness must be preceded by belief.

Health

I should start with health, as it's the foundation of training performance, which directly affects racing potential.  In the last few months, I performed some functional blood testing and then later some stool testing based on some anomalies in the blood work.  The bloodwork showed a marked rise in my hemoglobin as compared to testing last fall.  When reviewing the test results with Chris Kelly (my "health coach", nourishbalancethrive.com) he keyed in on that marker quickly and understood the implications in endurance sport (he's an elite-level mountain bike racer).  He indicated that such a rise in hemoglobin could result in perhaps 10-15 additional Watts on the bike at threshold.  For me, that represents an increase of around 5%; translated into time, it means likely a 6 minute faster bike split in an Ironman.  At the time of the consult with Chris, I was focusing on running and HAD noticed that for a given effort (heart rate), my paces were some 20-seconds (~4%) faster per mile than last year.  It's hard to know what caused such a rise in my hemoglobin, but it could simply be a matter of improving my health over the last year under the guidance of Chris & team.  During that consult, Chris also keyed-in on some other markers that suggested a stool test was in order.  The results of that testing was really surprising, as they showed I had giardia!  It was surprising because I was not experiencing any of the nasty GI symptoms associated with that pathogen.  However, my lab tests DID correlate with my daughter's symptoms.  I remain amazed at how valuable the services Chris provides to both my family and me.

The only health-related issue I've faced (and is currently still with me) is some right hip facial adhesions and surrounding muscle soreness.  That injury has yet to impair my training, but surely it's been uncomfortable.  The trigger of this injury was likely the run volume ramp from 40 to 80 miles per week over a three week period in March this year.

On whole, in the last several months I have remained healthy and my training is surely benefited from that health.  With regard to training, I think of health as the vessel that one fills with work; the better the health, the more training one can absorb. 

Functional Strength

Other than a run volume build of 3-4 weeks, I've been diligent with a single strength session per week.  While the frequency has been modest and the weights light, I am convinced of the value.  I am sure they helped me reach new training heights with my running while remaining relatively injury free.

Swimming

Compared to last year (and history), I've implemented one important change in my swimming.  That is, I started swimming with the masters folks 2-3 times per week.  This change has been awesome, as I have had the opportunity to meet some really cool and capable folks, who push me in the water more than I would otherwise on my own.  It's also provided me with a great deal of confidence, as I have been able to benchmark myself against solid swimmers.  Surprisingly, I'm probably a middle-of-the-pack masters swimmer now!  I'm not sure if it's the quality of the workouts, the competitive environment, or the hemoglobin, but my swimming is also at new heights, as marked by achieving a 100yd PR in the Duncan 25yd pool of 1:09 at the end of 3000yd masters workout.  I suspect my swim splits this season will be in the 5th percentile of my age group.

Based on my current swimming performance my predicted swim split at FL70.3 is somewhere around 30:23, which is the 5th percentile of the AG from 2016.

Biking

While I did start teaching spin class 2x per week, as compared to last year, I have not changed much.  I did start biking a bit early in the year (January), but I'm probably biking one fewer session per week.  My typical schedule looks like this currently:

Monday: 1-hr hard spin

Wednesday: VO2max intervals

Friday: 1-hr HIM/tempo ride

Saturday: 1:50 torque-intervals (hard)

After my lab review session with Chris, I was eager to test my legs on the Computrainer.  However, it would be several more weeks before I had a staple workout that I could compare to last year.  Specifically, my first VO2max workout was the first opportunity to test my fitness.  Instead of using the standard workout of  8x3-min @ 300 Watts, I decided to test Chris' estimate of 15 more Watts at threshold.  So, I endeavored to increase the power from last year by 5%.  Surprisingly, it was totally doable.  So, the running & swimming performance was now clearly evident on the bike as well!

When does that happen, when performance in all three sports rises MARKEDLY?  Somewhat of a rhetorical question...that happens when you're healthy!

The chart below shows the large vertical offset in power vs heart rate as compared to last year, and to 2008 -- eight years ago and at seas level!  Based my higher threshold and HIM races last year, I now expect my HIM power to be in the range of 240-250 Watts.

    

Using 245 Watts and Best Bike Split, I estimated the FL70.3 bike split to be 2:15:36. 

Bike plan

I will use my standard Power Speed Index (PSI) approach, with a fixed index of 49 (a new high for sure).  I'll cap the power at 315 Watts.  For example, if I am traveling at 23 MPH, my power should be 260 Watts; if 28 MPH, I'll dial it down a bit to 210 Watts.

Running

My general objectives for 2017 are to improve my running and swimming performance, especially in the HIM distance.  As a result, running is where I focused in the early part of the year.  Starting in Early December, 2016 I started running slowly and ramping volume modestly.  At the end of March, I had accumulated a good 4 months of Maffatone running, achieving a "Maff" (all day / double marathon) pace between 7:20-7:40 (on the treadmill).  That last point is important; my running has been almost exclusively on the treadmill.  Now, I did calibrate my footpod with GPS twice during that period.  I peaked in March with 3-week block of 205-miles, with the last week being 80-miles.  In the last 4-weeks, I have added some intensity to my weekly volume, which has come down substantially from the 80 miles per week level; I am likely running about 25-35 miles per week currently.  Based on some longer intervals (2-3 miles) and some really cool work with R and Golden Cheetah, I can now see my running regression line, with an example run shown below.   Prepping for Ironman Boulder last year, I found such an analysis to be extremely predictive of my racing run splits.  In fact, my IM Boulder run split was within the predicted range (on the fastest end) of my forecasts.  What is also interesting about this particular chart is the inflection point that occurs near 150 beats per minute.  While I think this is a low heart rate for threshold, it might be a reasonable predictor of that metric (running LT).  What's interesting about this idea is that I could -- theoretically -- perform an LT test a few times per week without having to actually kill myself to perform that arduous test.  More on that in another post.

Based on my running regression line, my predicted HIM Pace should be near ~6:45/mile (at altitude).  Estimating somewhat conservatively, that would put the run split at a 1:28:25.  That run split would represent a pretty large run PR, which I think is near 1:34.

Run Plan

Run based on feel, holding a target HR of 155 BPM.

General

Applied to most of my early-season training, I have done a LOT of fasted workouts, including 45-min swim + 1:50 Torque-intervals and up to 15+ mile runs.  Clearly, with the Maffatone running, this strategy should result in the ability to lighten-up on the caloric load during the race, which proved successful at IM Boulder last year.

One metric that's pointing in the wrong direction for optimal race performance is my weight; I am nearly 15-pounds over race weight currently (165 vs 150)!  We'll see how that plays out on the run!

Race Forecast

Based on the previous estimated splits, the following table summarizes the race predicted splits.  This overall time last year would result in win of the age group by about 12-minutes, with a top-10 overall.  Based on how I have been feeling, I think there is some upside to these estimates with a potential for a top 3 overall.

	Pace/Power	Split
Swim		0:30:23
Bike	245Watts	2:15:36
Run	0:06:45	1:28:25
T1+T2		0:05:01
Total		4:19:26

Risk Factors

No estimate is complete without a disclaimer!  The top two now include:

• Treadmill running speed is inaccurate or not reproducible outdoors -- I have had a handful of outdoor runs this year and basically each one was horrible for one reason or the other.  Hopefully Sunday will break that trend!
• Not able to elevate HR -- The early part of this season has been pretty easy, with the bulk of my training at low intensity.  Hopefully that results in freshness on Sunday, rather than a shock.

2016 Review / 2017 General Plan

2016 Recap

2016 started with a dream, which is best epitomized in in the picture below where I was leading the race at HITS Ocala in April; I wanted to achieve a new level of performance in my athletic life.  The year ended with a an honor I would have previously not thought possible: the top spot in the United States for the male 45-49 age group USAT Rankings.  I remain in disbelief that I'm ranked among the top athletes in the US, some of which were professional athletes in their younger days.  It's amazing to me that such a thing is possible from a person with relatively modest athletic genes (I might be lucky to rank at a regional level based on my running for example).  Further, it demonstrates that incredible things are possible from modest beginnings when pursuing a dream with discipline and passion.  I credit the performance last year primarily to regaining my health, which had been in decline for years.  In this regard thanks goes to Nourish Balance Thrive founder Chris Kelley.

What worked in 2016?

A Good Break: After a cold prevented me from starting IM Arizona in November 2015, I took about 2-months completely off running & biking.  However, I decided to dedicate myself to swimming by the end of January I had logging 75 swims in as many days, and 100,000 yards in the pool for the month.  I think that early season break from the more demanding sports resulted in a freshness that served me well through the rest of the year.  In addition, I never felt like I was behind the 8-ball with regard to swimming, which allowed me to focus later on biking & running.  Further, the work in the pool through the year under the guidance of Pete Alfino of Mile High Multisport really yielded some substantive gains in races.  My swim splits at the Ironman World Championship over the last three years show that improvement from 1:19 to 1:14 to (an amazing) 1:02.

Slowing the Run: Pete had also suggested that I slow my running down.  Rob Gray, another trusted advisor and amazing athlete, also suggested I slow down.  Out of respect, I listened, and considered the suggestions, but the idea just did not make sense to me.  Historically, most of my training was performed in zone 2-3.  And, post-kids, my training actually probably tended toward zone 3-4.  My thinking was simple: train the upper aerobic system and the lower-end would follow.  More specifically, I felt elevating my modest threshold would result in the biggest gains in racing.  However, my body was rebelling early in 2016 -- I was chronically ill, which prevented me from elevating my heart rate without considerable discomfort.  Having ample experience with significant illness, I realized that I just needed to keep moving, even if slow.  Ironically, during this "crisis", I found a renewed love for running.  Since moving to Colorado, running had been always hard -- not like it was at sea level, when it was comfortable and therapeutic.  Slowing down to give my body time to heal, I began to enjoy running again.  So, from the early season through most of the year, my running remained relatively easy.  The efficacy of that approach is now clearly evident.  Not only did I set an Ironman run PR (at altitude and 6-years older), but I was also winning my age-group in a few races -- a first for me.  Further, with a full racing season, including two Ironmans, I still felt like I had more good training left in me at the end of 2016.

Run Volume: While I tried the Sami Inkinin approach to my early season running (run nearly every day, but short distance; e.g., 2-miles), it did not yield good running form for me.  What did work for me was increasing the run volume.  I am convinced that -- for me -- the long, negative-split runs were critical to my first AG win (Boulder 70.3) in June.  I just did not have a sufficient run fitness in the first two races of the season (PR70.3 & HITS Ocala).  St George was a bit of an anomaly in that I was feeling the effects of the illness that I'll discuss below.  It wasn't until I had 4 solid weeks of a run build that I began to feel strong in the most critical portion of the races.  From early May to early June, I increased my run volume from the 35 to 45 miles per week range, with my first 20-mile run occurring 4-days before Boulder 70.3.

Bike Strength: While I was making great strides swimming & running, I was also improving my biking strength.  Specifically, February through June, all my bike training was hard, short, and indoor. I kept my torque-intervals through the entire season, including during the Ironman build.  Lastly, I deferred any significant bike volume until just 7-weeks prior to Ironman Boulder.  Here again, the theme of freshness prevailed.  The results: the second fastest overall bike split at Ironman Boulder, and a HUGE bike split PR.  Further, a top 3-percentile (in the AG) bike split at the Ironman World Championship.

Regained Health: The foundation for the improvements discussed above, was NOT harder, longer, smarter training; it was improved health.  While all my paces were showing excellent potential in the early season, there was something wrong; I could not elevate my heart rate in training without significant discomfort.  This issue also impacted my ability to race.  As an example, I held the following heart rates during the run split of St George 70.3 in the three prior years: 158, 157, 148.  Clearly, something was wrong.  After some searching, I came across an organization called Nourish Balance Thrive, which is essentially a health-coaching business aimed at executes and athletes.  I heard the founder Chris Kelley speaking during a podcast and it caught my attention.  I made the decision that the investment in my health was worth it (starting is expensive, but what is worth more than one's health?) and started down the course with Chris.  We started the process in the standard way with a bunch of functional medicine testing involving nearly all my bodily fluids (and solids).  I also started some consults with his wife Julia on the first intervention -- diet.  WOW!  What a shock that was.  Specifically, this meat & potatoes & cheese guy was to start Whole30 -- meaning, no dairy, no grains, and no sugars.  After a few weeks of complaining, I started down that path in earnest.  I remember starting Whole30 just before St George last year, sitting across the table from a plate of nachos my wife Christine had ordered.  Oh my, what torture this was going to be!  Well, after 30-days I was pretty successful, with only a few minor deviations from the plan.  In hindsight, this was just the kick in the pants I needed.

The lab results started coming an and showed some significant deficiencies, including auto-immune antibodies and a pesky parasite.  Fortunately, most of these issues could be addressed with just a better diet.

Here again, the evidence is clear.  I went from having a difficult time elevating my heart rate in early May to winning my age group a month later.  However, that was just the beginning.  Something Chris said to me, perhaps in one our first meetings, was that while I may have been training like a beast, my body was not able to absorb the training due to illness.  Anyone who's trained for an endurance event knows that the main benefits accrue after several months or years of healthy, consistent training.  Which brings us to 2017!

2017 General Plan

I had decided last year to give my body a break from the rigors of Ironman training and racing for 2017.  Last year was heavy in terms of training, time commitment, and focus on a single thing.  I had also decided that I wanted to build my running & swimming strength further so that those disciplines could further my position in races.  However, since I'd like to return to Kona for another shot at the podium in 2018 when I "age-up" to the 50-54 age group, I decided to do a late-season Ironman, but with a very short bike build.

Goals

A plan has no direction without an objective.  For me, the following are my goals/focus for 2017:

• Achieve the #1 position in the USAT Rankings for 2017
• Achieve the #1 position in the US in the Ironman 70.3 rankings
• Podium at the Ironman 70.3 World Championship in September, 2017
• Qualify for Kona @ IM Louisville in October, 2017; I also have a "secret" goal for this race, which I may share later in the year

Training Strategies

For obvious reasons, I will be using many of the training strategies I used in 2016, but with some slight variations.  For example:

• Functional strength -- I saw some significant strength improvements between Bould & Kona last year, which I am sure was a result of fucntional strength work; I plan to maintain that through the year this year
• A balanced focus on swimming -- Keep the frequency at 4-5x per week, with volume near 12k; join in the masters swimmers for some speed & skill
• Keep the bike work indorr & high-intensity through the entire year; maintain the torque-intervals, even 2x per week
• A limited, three-week bike build for IM Louisville
• Log 3-full months of nearly exclusive Maffetone Run pacing (comfortable; 132-135BPM for me)
• Build run volume early -- In fact, get to the 20-mile long run before my first race in April